Independent Strategic Analysis of Australia’s Global Interests

Strategic Weekly Analysis

Changing Narrative: The Chinese “Flavour” of Globalisation

China’s continued demand for respect from the international community using coercive tactics not only works against that objective but also shows that Beijing is not ready to be a global leader.

Thailand: Progressive Movement’s Failed Counter-Coup Attempt

Even though Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-Cha and his government are confident of their ability to outlast the leaderless pro-democracy protesters, there are number of concerning signals on the medium- to long-term risk horizon that will prevent a rapid revitalisation of Thailand, regardless of who occupies the office of prime minister.

Assassinations in Iran: Is Israel Seizing the Opportunity?

Israel likely fears that the coming Biden Administration will hinder the freedom that it enjoyed to act as it deemed fit throughout the Trump years, so would like to get as much done as it can while Trump remains president.

Indian Farmers Protest Against Market Liberalisation

Discussions between New Delhi and agricultural interest groups are unlikely to achieve consensus. The market reforms are likely to be implemented and will assist in improving food security outcomes.

Malabar Exercise and Quad 2.0: Intent and Significance

The progression of the Quad from an alignment of the willing to a force that could be directed against China can only demonstrate to Beijing the degree to which it has antagonised regional and extra-regional countries and placing the onus on it to mend its aggressive behaviour.

Rizieq’s Return Unwelcome News for Australia

The presence of the firebrand cleric in Indonesia will make Canberra uncomfortable as he represents a cultural shift that could further alienate the two countries and complicate any initiatives towards gaining a better understanding of each other.

Tigray Violence Threatens Ethiopian Transformation

With the country already riven along ethnic lines, the escalating violence between government forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front further threatens both Ethiopia’s recent advancements and its future progress.

Food and Water Security on the Agenda as Israeli Delegation Visits Sudan

Improved relations with the United States and Israel could help Sudan repair its economy and improve food and water security. As that will help it gain access to international finance and assist it in expressing its interests in regional water sharing negotiations.

Increased Risk of “Day Zero” Droughts due to Climate Change

While there is uncertainty about future climate conditions, it is probable that South Africa, Australia and other regions with similar climate conditions will experience severe droughts that could deplete water sources, mainly as a result of climate change.

Pakistan Releases “Proof” of Indian-Sponsored Terrorism: Does it Matter?

Pakistan’s release of “proof” of Indian-sponsored terrorism in Pakistan will further substantiate the beliefs of those who suspect India is complicit in those events and cause others who see it as more unsubstantiated Pakistani claims to dismiss the charges out of hand. Nothing has changed.

Publication Guide

  • Associate papers are primary source assessments written by FDI associates. The assessment topics range from regional bilateral relationships and opportunities and challenges in our neighbouring countries.

  • Feature interviews are interviews conducted by an FDI Research Manager. Interview topics range from the sustainability of our planet to the improved provision of emergency food aid.

  • Normally issued in hardcopy, these represent a comprehensive study of one of FDI’s four research areas.

  • Strategic alerts are priority current intelligence items. We provide these alerts when events such as military deployments or foreign election results occur.

  • A 1500 to 3000 word, single topic assessment.

  • A number of short articles addressing current intelligence topics, issued each week.

  • A record of discussions resulting from a single, or series of, roundtable conferences.

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