Turn-Around Means Prabowo will Challenge Indonesian Election Result as Confusion Continues
Prabowo Subianto’s eleventh-hour decision to challenge the outcome of the 9 July presidential election in the Constitutional Court is unlikely to alter the overall result, given the margin of victory enjoyed by Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. Background In a dramatic turn-around, unsuccessful presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto will now challenge the election result, his team’s chief...
Indonesia Considers Cutting Australian Beef Imports: Future Implications
While the recent spying scandal is unlikely to result in Indonesia suspending beef imports from Australia, it may further encourage Jakarta to look to other markets in the future, leading to a reduction in Australian exports. Background The fallout from the Indonesian spying scandal has continued this week, with Jakarta warning it may cut its...
Iran’s Nuclear Compromise: Will the Latest Rounds of Talks Achieve Anything?
Background The P5+1 talks being held tomorrow follow two previous rounds, one in Almaty, Kazakhstan from 26-27 February and a meeting of experts in Istanbul, Turkey on 17-18 March. Though the outcomes are vague and highly tentative currently, they set the scene for further discussions tomorrow. The talks are likely to be baby-steps towards a...
Ethiopia Faces Uncertain Transition Following Death of Long-Term President
Background Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s 20 August death ended weeks of speculation over his medical condition. A tense situation now exists regarding who will replace him and what impact this might have on Ethiopia and the region. Discussion Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Hailemariam Desalegn will most likely act as the interim prime minister....
Pakistan: Gilani “Cops It Sweet” – For Now
Background The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has apparently decided to accept the Supreme Court’s decision to dismiss Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani and to try to avoid calling new elections. The job now is to choose a new Prime Minister and keep the minor coalition partners on side. As it is, elections are not scheduled...
An Iranian Nuclear Resolution: Fraught with Difficulty
Background The Baghdad talks finished at best on a hopeful note. While details are scarce, and there is no evidence of a substantial breakthrough, further discussions are contemplated. Both sides need an agreement. But do they have the capacity to achieve this given their inherent suspicions, different objectives and failure to reach any significant outcome...
Implications of European Union Sanctions against Iran
Background On 23 January 2012, the EU placed an immediate ban on all new contracts to import, purchase or transport Iranian crude oil and petroleum products. Where existing contracts exist, EU countries have until 1 July to cancel them. EU officials also agree to freeze assets in Iran’s central bank. Discussion The EU’s move is...