Independent Strategic Analysis of Australia’s Global Interests

Strategic Alerts

Strategic alerts are priority current intelligence items. We provide these alerts when events such as military deployments or foreign election results occur.

The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act 2019 – Progress on the BJP’s Election Manifesto?

12 August 2019 | Indian Ocean, Strategic Alerts

The abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution may have occurred as part of Prime Minister Modi’s agenda of “Hindu-ising” India, elevating the BJP’s saffron flag and, thus, overturning Jawaharlal Nehru’s concept of a secular India.

Australia-Indonesia Relations: Rare Opportunity for a Bold, Fresh Start

Indonesian voters have returned incumbent president Joko Widodo for a second term in office. Although Widodo will be confronted by some significant domestic challenges, with elections occurring only one month apart in both countries and the eventual ratification of the IA-CEPA trade agreement, Australia is potentially well placed to signal a new phase in its relationship with Indonesia.

Surprises and Accusations in Indonesian Presidential Nominations

So far, Jokowi has fared better than Prabowo in the aftermath of the nomination announcements.

China’s “Debt Trap” in Pakistan: The Risk of Diluting the FATF Ruling

12 July 2018 | Indian Ocean, Strategic Alerts

Pakistan, which was forced by circumstance to accept financial loans from China, now finds itself increasingly – and, perhaps, dangerously – indebted to Beijing, with little chance of escaping the debt trap into which it has fallen. There could be major consequences for its sovereignty.

Trump-Kim Summit: Beyond the Optics, a Gamble for Both Sides

14 June 2018 | Indian Ocean, Strategic Alerts

Despite the commitments and concessions made by each leader, substantial uncertainties remain. The United States will remain apprehensive about North Korea until it is verified that the North is not capable of launching a nuclear strike against the US mainland. In agreeing to a programme of denuclearisation, while the economic sanctions against it remain in place, North Korea may yet decide against giving away its only strategic leverage.

Shock Loss for Najib in Malaysian General Election

The large and unexpected loss comes as a major upset for the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition and could unleash a number of changes in the Malaysian political landscape.

Northern Territory Government Lifts Moratorium on Hydraulic Fracturing

In a bold political move, the Northern Territory Government has lifted its moratorium on hydraulic fracturing or fracking. The decision, while being based upon sound scientific advice and a broad range of environmental and regulatory safeguards, is not without electoral risk. With judicious implementation and management, however, it may pave the way for a bright economic future for the Territory.

Ramaphosa Presidency Brings Ratings Reprieve for South Africa

The decision of Moody’s Investors Service not to lower the South African Government’s credit rating and to upgrade its outlook from “negative” to “stable”, reflects the belief that South Africa, under President Ramaphosa, is moving towards a more transparent, fiscally sound, style of governance.

South Africa: Chance for Fresh Start as Zuma Goes

15 February 2018 | Indian Ocean, Strategic Alerts

The resignation of Jacob Zuma offers a chance to move past his controversial presidency but the governing party is far from united. If the ANC can come together to govern equitably and in the best interests of all South Africans, while repudiating the corruption, incompetence and cronyism of the Zuma era, the Cyril Ramaphosa presidency may offer a welcome return to the optimism and vitality that initially characterised post-apartheid South Africa.

Trump’s Afghanistan Policy Becomes Multi-Faceted

The US President now appears to be taking a broader view of the situation in Afghanistan, one that could increase the pressure on Pakistan and bring India into the peacekeeping – and peace-making – equation.

Publication Guide

  • Associate papers are primary source assessments written by FDI associates. The assessment topics range from regional bilateral relationships and opportunities and challenges in our neighbouring countries.

  • Feature interviews are interviews conducted by an FDI Research Manager. Interview topics range from the sustainability of our planet to the improved provision of emergency food aid.

  • Normally issued in hardcopy, these represent a comprehensive study of one of FDI’s four research areas.

  • Strategic alerts are priority current intelligence items. We provide these alerts when events such as military deployments or foreign election results occur.

  • A 1500 to 3000 word, single topic assessment.

  • A number of short articles addressing current intelligence topics, issued each week.

  • A record of discussions resulting from a single, or series of, roundtable conferences.

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