Independent Strategic Analysis of Australia’s Global Interests

Strategic Alerts

Strategic alerts are priority current intelligence items. We provide these alerts when events such as military deployments or foreign election results occur.

Trump-Kim Summit: Beyond the Optics, a Gamble for Both Sides

14 June 2018 | Indian Ocean, Strategic Alerts

Despite the commitments and concessions made by each leader, substantial uncertainties remain. The United States will remain apprehensive about North Korea until it is verified that the North is not capable of launching a nuclear strike against the US mainland. In agreeing to a programme of denuclearisation, while the economic sanctions against it remain in place, North Korea may yet decide against giving away its only strategic leverage.

Shock Loss for Najib in Malaysian General Election

The large and unexpected loss comes as a major upset for the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition and could unleash a number of changes in the Malaysian political landscape.

Northern Territory Government Lifts Moratorium on Hydraulic Fracturing

In a bold political move, the Northern Territory Government has lifted its moratorium on hydraulic fracturing or fracking. The decision, while being based upon sound scientific advice and a broad range of environmental and regulatory safeguards, is not without electoral risk. With judicious implementation and management, however, it may pave the way for a bright economic future for the Territory.

Ramaphosa Presidency Brings Ratings Reprieve for South Africa

The decision of Moody’s Investors Service not to lower the South African Government’s credit rating and to upgrade its outlook from “negative” to “stable”, reflects the belief that South Africa, under President Ramaphosa, is moving towards a more transparent, fiscally sound, style of governance.

South Africa: Chance for Fresh Start as Zuma Goes

15 February 2018 | Indian Ocean, Strategic Alerts

The resignation of Jacob Zuma offers a chance to move past his controversial presidency but the governing party is far from united. If the ANC can come together to govern equitably and in the best interests of all South Africans, while repudiating the corruption, incompetence and cronyism of the Zuma era, the Cyril Ramaphosa presidency may offer a welcome return to the optimism and vitality that initially characterised post-apartheid South Africa.

Trump’s Afghanistan Policy Becomes Multi-Faceted

The US President now appears to be taking a broader view of the situation in Afghanistan, one that could increase the pressure on Pakistan and bring India into the peacekeeping – and peace-making – equation.

India Will Resist China’s Encroachment but Both Must Adjust to New Realities

China’s thinly-veiled warning to India to heed the lessons of its loss in their 1962 war and India’s retort that it is a different country from that of the time both fail to recognise their new reality: neither can afford a war with the other.

What’s Next for Jakarta Governor-Elect Anies Baswedan?

Anies will look towards fulfilling his policy promises to prove his worth as a presidential candidate. The success of religious tensions in propelling him into power could also be utilised again.

Ahok Wins First Round of Jakarta Elections

While Ahok has a number of obstacles he must overcome to win the second round, success would humiliate hardline Islamist groups and empower the Indonesian President.

Marrakech: The Next Step in an Increasingly Active Process to Combat Climate Change

It remains to be seen if COP22 will achieve the necessary actions, the outcome of which may take many years to confirm.

Publication Guide

  • Associate papers are primary source assessments written by FDI associates. The assessment topics range from regional bilateral relationships and opportunities and challenges in our neighbouring countries.

  • Feature interviews are interviews conducted by an FDI Research Manager. Interview topics range from the sustainability of our planet to the improved provision of emergency food aid.

  • Normally issued in hardcopy, these represent a comprehensive study of one of FDI’s four research areas.

  • Strategic alerts are priority current intelligence items. We provide these alerts when events such as military deployments or foreign election results occur.

  • A 1500 to 3000 word, single topic assessment.

  • A number of short articles addressing current intelligence topics, issued each week.

  • A record of discussions resulting from a single, or series of, roundtable conferences.

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