Independent Strategic Analysis of Australia’s Global Interests

Strategic Analysis Paper

US Ties to Allies under the Biden Administration

Some of the first Executive Orders signed by President Biden indicate that he favours multilateralism and a more outward-looking US. While the new president has made working with allies a priority, his primary challenges, however, are domestic. In terms of India-US ties, it remains to be seen how Washington and New Delhi will reconcile their differences over the latter’s dealings with Russia.

Conflict with China Is Not Inevitable … But the Chances of One Are Increasing

China’s current strategies of economic and military coercion and territorial “salami-slicing” are causing other countries to view it as a predator and untrustworthy and they are aligning and coalescing in an effort to balance and, if required, counter its predatory behaviour. The result is a situation that could easily get out of hand and lead to conflict.

Covid-19 and Food Security in the Pacific: Considerable Challenges with an Opportunity to “Build Back Better”

While the health implications of Covid-19 in the South Pacific have been limited, the economic consequences of the pandemic have been severe. The loss of tourism revenue and remittances from overseas have reduced incomes and household spending. The economic downturn has limited economic access to food supplies, which has weakened food security. Efforts to “build back better” in the wake of the pandemic could focus on agricultural development, with significant benefits for regional food security.

Shifting Sands: Pakistan and the Gulf Co-operation Council

While a number of events have led to the deterioration of the Pakistan-GCC relationship, a key factor has been the changing attitudes of the GCC countries towards Israel. In the future, the real challenge for Pakistan is likely to be adapting to a Middle East in which Israel and the GCC have normal relations, with increasingly less space for a zero-sum approach and looking at diplomacy in shades of simply black and white.

Covid-19 Worsens Food Security in South-East Asia

While most of the South-East Asian region has managed to contain the spread of the Covid-19 virus and prevent a public health crisis, the regional economic downturn has resulted in weaker food security and a rise in poverty.

The US-India Relationship after Trump: A Return to Convention?

Unlike his predecessor, President Biden is likely to favour working more closely with US friends and allies on geopolitical, economic and environmental issues of concern. While absolute convergence is impossible between any two countries, there are nonetheless more convergences than divergences between the US and India, and President Biden’s likely more flexible approach towards Iran, his difference in approach to immigration issues, and even in countering China, are some of the areas for potentially greater synergies between New Delhi and the Biden White House.

China Continues to Confront Steep Environmental Challenges

Beijing recognises that there are growing concerns within China about environmental conditions, especially in relation to air, water and soil pollution. In recent years it has introduced new laws and set a range of goals to reduce pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Chinese officials admit that while environmental conditions have improved in recent years, they fall short of public expectations. Beijing is expected to announce new environmental goals in the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan. If they are as poorly implemented as those in the previous plan, they are also likely to fall short of public expectations.

Politics in Pakistan: Nawaz Sharif vs. Imran Khan

Former PM Nawaz Sharif’s attack against the Pakistan Army and current Prime Minister Imran Khan has elicited strong responses. Sharif’s claims could mobilise the opposition, at a time when Khan, who needs to deliver improved economic and governance outcomes, also needs to dispel his image of being a puppet of the army (which is unlikely to take Sharif’s criticism without some form of retaliation).

Beijing’s Great Game in the Indo-Pacific: Future Dynamics

The consequences of China’s increasingly assertive foreign policy are being felt globally, with the Indo-Pacific being the most-affected region. Beijing must understand, however, that the Indo-Pacific is a multipolar region and is too large and complex to be dominated by any one power. In fact, China’s actions in the Indo-Pacific are further driving the consolidation of the Quad.

The Chinese Distant Water Fishing Fleet and Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing

Illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing has been described as the leading maritime security threat and the Chinese distant water fishing fleet is likely to be the world’s leading perpetrator. While Beijing has taken steps to address wrongdoing in the Chinese fishing industry, it might continue to ignore transgressions as the industry continues to play a role in the Communist Party’s maritime strategy.

Publication Guide

  • Associate papers are primary source assessments written by FDI associates. The assessment topics range from regional bilateral relationships and opportunities and challenges in our neighbouring countries.

  • Feature interviews are interviews conducted by an FDI Research Manager. Interview topics range from the sustainability of our planet to the improved provision of emergency food aid.

  • Normally issued in hardcopy, these represent a comprehensive study of one of FDI’s four research areas.

  • Strategic alerts are priority current intelligence items. We provide these alerts when events such as military deployments or foreign election results occur.

  • A 1500 to 3000 word, single topic assessment.

  • A number of short articles addressing current intelligence topics, issued each week.

  • A record of discussions resulting from a single, or series of, roundtable conferences.

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