Political and Governance Challenges Confronting Timor-Leste
Timor-Leste has coped comparatively well with the effects of COVID-19, largely due to its sovereign wealth Petroleum Fund. Unfortunately, however, the longevity of the Petroleum Fund is now in question and, while a restructuring of the governing coalition spurred on by COVID-19 has brought some respite from high levels of political instability, it is still likely only to offer temporary relief. For Australia, the objective is a prosperous and stable neighbour but, if its economic and political challenges are not addressed, Timor-Leste could become significantly more vulnerable to the ambitions of foreign powers, which may be at odds with Australian interests.
A Chinese City on Australia’s Northern Border?
Plans for the city on the PNG Torres Strait island of Daru are unlikely to come to fruition. It does, however, underscore ongoing interest from China for infrastructure projects in PNG and Australia’s political concerns.
China-Kazakhstan Relations: Setting a Standard for Central Asian States
China’s incursions into Kazakhstan’s security construct, traditionally seen by Russia as its domain, could set the tone for Beijing’s future relations with Russia and the other Central Asian states.
International Food Prices Rise to Six-Year High, Presenting an Opportunity for Australian Exporters
Higher Chinese demand for feed grains and the imposition of Russian wheat export duties is pushing global food prices higher. Higher prices will benefit food exporters, including Australia, but will increase living costs for populations in poorer, import-reliant countries.
Djibouti at a Crossroads: China’s African Engagement and an Adversarial Beijing-Washington Relationship
Djibouti’s geostrategic position and willingness to host the military forces of external powers, including of the United States and China, continues to draw the country to the centre of great power politics. Beyond the wider strategic concerns emanating from US-China rivalry, the confined space of Djibouti presents a potential opportunity for the two powers to improve their co-operation at close range because instability and insecurity in the Red Sea and western Indian Ocean Region are equally disadvantageous for both Washington and Beijing.
Social Media in Pakistan: The War of the Narratives
The “post-truth” age has inflicted serious harms on Pakistan, and the authorities are now making a concerted effort to control social media because it has gained the power to deconstruct official narratives. In also making people aware of their past errors and prompting them to find the truth, social media is thereby transcending the boundaries imposed by the judiciary-military mix.
The Myanmar Coup: A Geopolitical Approach
The coup d’état in Myanmar will have a wider impact on a region beset by constant tensions in the civilian-military leadership balance, but it also shows how the US and China will play their respective regional roles in the future.
China Ups the Ante in the South China Sea: How will the US React?
China’s new law authorising its Coast Guard to use deadly force if required against foreign entities is likely a test for President Biden; it comes, however, with significant risk for Beijing, Washington and the region.
Trouble Brews in South-East Asia as Thailand Rejects Laotian Dam Report
The latest move indicates growing, if belated, concern around the environmental and economic viability of damming the Mekong River.
US Ties to Allies under the Biden Administration
Some of the first Executive Orders signed by President Biden indicate that he favours multilateralism and a more outward-looking US. While the new president has made working with allies a priority, his primary challenges, however, are domestic. In terms of India-US ties, it remains to be seen how Washington and New Delhi will reconcile their differences over the latter’s dealings with Russia.