The Indonesian Government has begun easing restrictions as daily cases continue to increase. While it is difficult to gauge the impact of that move, prospective presidential candidates are already vying to benefit from perceptions of government incompetence.
The Indonesian central government must enact strong nationwide policies if it is to stem the spread of COVID-19.
The bilateral relationship will endure through close economic ties but is unlikely to expand significantly beyond that sphere.
If approved, Indonesia’s claim on the Eauripik Rise north of Papua could become a source of short-term friction in the South Pacific. It is unlikely those claims will have long-lasting ramifications, however, given that the Indonesian Government is in a good position to negotiate on them.
Palm oil exports from Indonesia and Malaysia may become more vulnerable targets for retaliatory measures from India and China in the future.
The economic impact of the coronavirus will be most felt through a drop in the number of tourist arrivals, as well as falling copper prices. Chinese-Indonesians are again being targeted by misinformation campaigns that could increase tensions in the short term.
After France and Indonesia sign the Defence Co-operation Agreement, most of the progress in the partnership will be seen in intelligence sharing, training, exports and manufacturing.
It is unlikely that there will be a Constitutional amendment in the short term. Growing pressure, however, in addition to nurturing public support, could see such an amendment take place further down the track.
A free trade agreement could help to reverse a downward trend in bilateral trade. A major investment deal was also reached, although there remains significant need for more infrastructure investment in Indonesia.
Indonesia’s economic diplomacy will remain unchanged while it seeks to strengthen trade ties and access emerging markets. Indonesia may face growing pressure about its stance on human rights, however, especially regarding China.