Independent Strategic Analysis of Australia’s Global Interests

Indian Ocean SWA Articles

Sino-Indian Confidence-Building Measures: A Waste of Time

China’s duplicitous breaches of the terms of the agreements that it has entered into with India are one consequence of India’s failed policy of strategic autonomy.

Modi Government Caught Up in a Serious Protest, Again

After India’s Parliament passed three agriculture-related Acts in September that farmers want repealed, the Supreme Court temporarily suspended them and asked the government and the farmers to jointly resolve the matter. The question is, will the government give in to one of the largest protests seen in India or withstand it?

Death Bells Tolling for Turkmenistan’s neo-Soviet Government?

Political protest is beginning rise in Turkmenistan and, due to the worsening state of the economy and influence of the Turkmen diaspora, the nascent movement may even have a genuine chance of overthrowing the repressive Democratic Party of Turkmenistan.

Indonesia: Issues to Watch for in 2021

Indonesia may see the worst of the pandemic in 2021 and Australia should closely watch how Jakarta’s relationship with Beijing develops. The fate of the hardline Front Pembela Islam may also be decided, which could have a significant impact on the broader community.

Republicans and Democrats Squabble as Public Confidence in the US Election Erodes

It is probable that President-elect Joseph Biden will take the oath of President of the US on 20 January; whether he will be recognised as such by half of that country’s voters remains to be seen.

India’s Worries and China’s Tibetan Dams

Chinese dams on the Brahmaputra River are just one more thorn in the side of India-China relations and India has good reason to be concerned.

Changing Narrative: The Chinese “Flavour” of Globalisation

China’s continued demand for respect from the international community using coercive tactics not only works against that objective but also shows that Beijing is not ready to be a global leader.

Thailand: Progressive Movement’s Failed Counter-Coup Attempt

Even though Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-Cha and his government are confident of their ability to outlast the leaderless pro-democracy protesters, there are number of concerning signals on the medium- to long-term risk horizon that will prevent a rapid revitalisation of Thailand, regardless of who occupies the office of prime minister.

Assassinations in Iran: Is Israel Seizing the Opportunity?

Israel likely fears that the coming Biden Administration will hinder the freedom that it enjoyed to act as it deemed fit throughout the Trump years, so would like to get as much done as it can while Trump remains president.

Malabar Exercise and Quad 2.0: Intent and Significance

The progression of the Quad from an alignment of the willing to a force that could be directed against China can only demonstrate to Beijing the degree to which it has antagonised regional and extra-regional countries and placing the onus on it to mend its aggressive behaviour.

Publication Guide

  • Associate papers are primary source assessments written by FDI associates. The assessment topics range from regional bilateral relationships and opportunities and challenges in our neighbouring countries.

  • Feature interviews are interviews conducted by an FDI Research Manager. Interview topics range from the sustainability of our planet to the improved provision of emergency food aid.

  • Normally issued in hardcopy, these represent a comprehensive study of one of FDI’s four research areas.

  • Strategic alerts are priority current intelligence items. We provide these alerts when events such as military deployments or foreign election results occur.

  • A 1500 to 3000 word, single topic assessment.

  • A number of short articles addressing current intelligence topics, issued each week.

  • A record of discussions resulting from a single, or series of, roundtable conferences.

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