China’s duplicitous breaches of the terms of the agreements that it has entered into with India are one consequence of India’s failed policy of strategic autonomy.
After India’s Parliament passed three agriculture-related Acts in September that farmers want repealed, the Supreme Court temporarily suspended them and asked the government and the farmers to jointly resolve the matter. The question is, will the government give in to one of the largest protests seen in India or withstand it?
Political protest is beginning rise in Turkmenistan and, due to the worsening state of the economy and influence of the Turkmen diaspora, the nascent movement may even have a genuine chance of overthrowing the repressive Democratic Party of Turkmenistan.
Indonesia may see the worst of the pandemic in 2021 and Australia should closely watch how Jakarta’s relationship with Beijing develops. The fate of the hardline Front Pembela Islam may also be decided, which could have a significant impact on the broader community.
It is probable that President-elect Joseph Biden will take the oath of President of the US on 20 January; whether he will be recognised as such by half of that country’s voters remains to be seen.
China’s continued demand for respect from the international community using coercive tactics not only works against that objective but also shows that Beijing is not ready to be a global leader.
Even though Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-Cha and his government are confident of their ability to outlast the leaderless pro-democracy protesters, there are number of concerning signals on the medium- to long-term risk horizon that will prevent a rapid revitalisation of Thailand, regardless of who occupies the office of prime minister.
Israel likely fears that the coming Biden Administration will hinder the freedom that it enjoyed to act as it deemed fit throughout the Trump years, so would like to get as much done as it can while Trump remains president.
The progression of the Quad from an alignment of the willing to a force that could be directed against China can only demonstrate to Beijing the degree to which it has antagonised regional and extra-regional countries and placing the onus on it to mend its aggressive behaviour.