Independent Strategic Analysis of Australia’s Global Interests

Indian Ocean SWA Articles

Can Indonesia Rally an ASEAN Response to the Myanmar Coup?

It is unlikely that ASEAN will agree to a co-ordinated response to the military coup in Myanmar, leaving it to countries from outside the region to impose stronger measures. Convincing the military to schedule a new election with ASEAN oversight, while not ideal, may be the best-case scenario for ASEAN.

The Future of Peace in Afghanistan

Uncertainty surrounds the peace negotiations in Afghanistan due to an inability to reconcile the Taliban’s demands with those of Kabul and the West.

Qatar’s Economic Recovery: LNG in 2021 and Beyond

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the Qatari economy. Economic and diplomatic developments involving neighbouring countries, as well as significant investments in liquefied natural gas production, have renewed optimism for a strong recovery.

China’s Likely Coercion Saves it from Embarrassment in Afghanistan

China would like to fill the vacuum left if US forces withdraw from Afghanistan, likely due to the country’s strategic significance. While that strategy may be sound, Beijing’s tactics remain questionable.

A Chinese City on Australia’s Northern Border?

Plans for the city on the PNG Torres Strait island of Daru are unlikely to come to fruition. It does, however, underscore ongoing interest from China for infrastructure projects in PNG and Australia’s political concerns.

China-Kazakhstan Relations: Setting a Standard for Central Asian States

China’s incursions into Kazakhstan’s security construct, traditionally seen by Russia as its domain, could set the tone for Beijing’s future relations with Russia and the other Central Asian states.

The Myanmar Coup: A Geopolitical Approach

The coup d’état in Myanmar will have a wider impact on a region beset by constant tensions in the civilian-military leadership balance, but it also shows how the US and China will play their respective regional roles in the future.

China Ups the Ante in the South China Sea: How will the US React?

China’s new law authorising its Coast Guard to use deadly force if required against foreign entities is likely a test for President Biden; it comes, however, with significant risk for Beijing, Washington and the region.

Ethiopia Accused of Weaponising Food in Tigrayan Conflict

While it is difficult to prove the allegation that Addis Ababa deliberately blocked the delivery of food aid, it is likely to tarnish the reputation of its reform-minded Prime Minister.

Whither US Africa Policy under the Biden Administration?

Confronted by serious domestic issues, the Biden Administration is likely to continue the Africa policy of its predecessor but, as that is framed largely through the lens of China’s presence on the continent, it may become necessary for Washington to finesse its Africa policy sooner rather than later.

Publication Guide

  • Associate papers are primary source assessments written by FDI associates. The assessment topics range from regional bilateral relationships and opportunities and challenges in our neighbouring countries.

  • Feature interviews are interviews conducted by an FDI Research Manager. Interview topics range from the sustainability of our planet to the improved provision of emergency food aid.

  • Normally issued in hardcopy, these represent a comprehensive study of one of FDI’s four research areas.

  • Strategic alerts are priority current intelligence items. We provide these alerts when events such as military deployments or foreign election results occur.

  • A 1500 to 3000 word, single topic assessment.

  • A number of short articles addressing current intelligence topics, issued each week.

  • A record of discussions resulting from a single, or series of, roundtable conferences.

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