Independent Strategic Analysis of Australia’s Global Interests

Strategic Alerts

Strategic alerts are priority current intelligence items. We provide these alerts when events such as military deployments or foreign election results occur.

What’s Next for Jakarta Governor-Elect Anies Baswedan?

Anies will look towards fulfilling his policy promises to prove his worth as a presidential candidate. The success of religious tensions in propelling him into power could also be utilised again.

Ahok Wins First Round of Jakarta Elections

While Ahok has a number of obstacles he must overcome to win the second round, success would humiliate hardline Islamist groups and empower the Indonesian President.

Marrakech: The Next Step in an Increasingly Active Process to Combat Climate Change

It remains to be seen if COP22 will achieve the necessary actions, the outcome of which may take many years to confirm.

India Strikes Back: Where to Now for Pakistan?

The Indian strikes on militant camps in Pakistan can only further increase already-heightened tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours, making the current situation extremely volatile.

Maldives Emergency Tests Fragile Democracy

6 November 2015 | Strategic Alerts

Diplomatic intervention by the West and India, as democracies, will be increasingly necessary to help address the slide back towards authoritarianism in the Maldives. Background Citing an imminent threat to national security, Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen declared a state of emergency on 4 November. The 30-day order limits constitutional freedoms and gives security forces sweeping powers of arrest. Critics...

United Kingdom to Commit Troops to Somalia and South Sudan

2 October 2015 | Strategic Alerts

Prime Minister David Cameron’s decision to deploy troops to South Sudan and Somalia may mark a shift in British foreign policy but will likely have a limited effect on the ground. Background In a move that may herald a major shift in UK foreign policy, Prime Minister David Cameron announced on 28 September that a...

Narendra Modi to Meet With Nawaz Sharif at SCO Summit

10 July 2015 | Strategic Alerts

The Indian Prime Minister will meet his Pakistani counterpart on the sidelines of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) today to discuss sensitive issues such as Kashmir and terrorism. Background Modi extended an invitation to Sharif to attend his inauguration to the office of Prime Minister, the first time an Indian Prime Minister-elect did so. Sharif...

France and Saudi Arabia Unveil Nuclear and Defence Co-operation Agreements

26 June 2015 | Strategic Alerts

Recently-unveiled nuclear agreements between France and Saudi Arabia mark a growing relationship between the two countries even though they are cautiously optimistic. Background France and Saudi Arabia announced several deals worth over US$12 billion on 24 June at the inaugural Franco-Saudi Joint Commission meeting in Paris. The deals include a Saudi purchase of 23 Airbus...

South Africa: Energy Crisis Headlines Chaotic State of the Nation Address

13 February 2015 | Strategic Alerts

Resolving the country’s continuing electricity crisis is the top priority in an out-of-the-ordinary State of the Nation Address by President Jacob Zuma. Background President Zuma has used his annual State of the Nation Address, on 12 February, to announce measures intended to address the electricity shortages gripping South Africa.   Given deteriorating economic conditions, rising...

Turn-Around Means Prabowo will Challenge Indonesian Election Result as Confusion Continues

24 July 2014 | Strategic Alerts

Prabowo Subianto’s eleventh-hour decision to challenge the outcome of the 9 July presidential election in the Constitutional Court is unlikely to alter the overall result, given the margin of victory enjoyed by Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.   Background In a dramatic turn-around, unsuccessful presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto will now challenge the election result, his team’s chief...

Indonesia Considers Cutting Australian Beef Imports: Future Implications

28 November 2013 | Strategic Alerts

While the recent spying scandal is unlikely to result in Indonesia suspending beef imports from Australia, it may further encourage Jakarta to look to other markets in the future, leading to a reduction in Australian exports. Background The fallout from the Indonesian spying scandal has continued this week, with Jakarta warning it may cut its...

Iran’s Nuclear Compromise: Will the Latest Rounds of Talks Achieve Anything?

4 April 2013 | Strategic Alerts

Background The P5+1 talks being held tomorrow follow two previous rounds, one in Almaty, Kazakhstan from 26-27 February and a meeting of experts in Istanbul, Turkey on 17-18 March. Though the outcomes are vague and highly tentative currently, they set the scene for further discussions tomorrow. The talks are likely to be baby-steps towards a...

Ethiopia Faces Uncertain Transition Following Death of Long-Term President

23 August 2012 | Strategic Alerts

Background Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s 20 August death ended weeks of speculation over his medical condition. A tense situation now exists regarding who will replace him and what impact this might have on Ethiopia and the region. Discussion Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Hailemariam Desalegn will most likely act as the interim prime minister....

Pakistan: Gilani “Cops It Sweet” – For Now

22 June 2012 | Strategic Alerts

Background The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has apparently decided to accept the Supreme Court’s decision to dismiss Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani and to try to avoid calling new elections. The job now is to choose a new Prime Minister and keep the minor coalition partners on side. As it is, elections are not scheduled...

An Iranian Nuclear Resolution: Fraught with Difficulty

28 May 2012 | Strategic Alerts

Background The Baghdad talks finished at best on a hopeful note. While details are scarce, and there is no evidence of a substantial breakthrough, further discussions are contemplated. Both sides need an agreement. But do they have the capacity to achieve this given their inherent suspicions, different objectives and failure to reach any significant outcome...

Implications of European Union Sanctions against Iran

24 January 2012 | Strategic Alerts

Background On 23 January 2012, the EU placed an immediate ban on all new contracts to import, purchase or transport Iranian crude oil and petroleum products. Where existing contracts exist, EU countries have until 1 July to cancel them. EU officials also agree to freeze assets in Iran’s central bank. Discussion The EU’s move is...

Publication Guide

  • Associate papers are primary source assessments written by FDI associates. The assessment topics range from regional bilateral relationships and opportunities and challenges in our neighbouring countries.

  • Feature interviews are interviews conducted by an FDI Research Manager. Interview topics range from the sustainability of our planet to the improved provision of emergency food aid.

  • Normally issued in hardcopy, these represent a comprehensive study of one of FDI’s four research areas.

  • Strategic alerts are priority current intelligence items. We provide these alerts when events such as military deployments or foreign election results occur.

  • A 1500 to 3000 word, single topic assessment.

  • A number of short articles addressing current intelligence topics, issued each week.

  • A record of discussions resulting from a single, or series of, roundtable conferences.

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