Iran: New Talks or More of the Same?

Indian Ocean SWA Articles

Wednesday, 02 May 2012

Background

In addition to the programmed talks with the six world powers in Baghdad on 23 May, Iran has proposed engaging the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in a new round of talks.

Opinion is divided over whether this new round will lead to an outcome that conclusively supports Iranian claims that it has no interest in developing a nuclear weapons capability.

Comment

Iran’s senior delegate to the IAEA indicated that talks will take place in Vienna on 13-14 May.  According to him, the talks will focus on ‘resolving questions’ about Tehran’s intention to develop a nuclear weapon.

To date, the IAEA has not been convinced of Iran’s statement that it has no intention of developing such weapons. Inspectors have been denied access to certain sites and have recently claimed that satellite images support the contention that an apparent clean-up of the Parchin military complex is underway. Iranian officials deny such claims, stating that it is not possible to remove radioactive traces.

Regardless of their intentions, both sides have a history of publicly doubting each other. The IAEA regularly accuses Iran of not addressing the nuclear weapons issue. Tehran, on the other hand, blames the IAEA for focussing on intelligence reports, often produced by anti-Iranian Western powers, which, it says, seek to publish misleading and inaccurate information.

Iranian leaders must also take some comfort from the recent apparent rift between Israel’s political leadership and senior representatives of its defence and intelligence community, particularly over the effectiveness of independent air strikes and likely repercussions.  

Equally, however, Iran’s leadership must be increasingly concerned over the diplomatic and economic pressures that are set to expand as sanctions continue to bite.

The outcome of the IAEA talks, therefore, will be viewed with great interest, to determine if a possible breakthrough is likely or if the results will reflect the lack of success that characterised previous talks.

Major General John Hartley AO (Retd)

Institute Director and CEO

Future Directions International

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