Continuing Shia Unrest Worries House of Saud

Indian Ocean SWA Articles

Thursday, 26 April 2012

Background

Sectarian unrest continues in Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich Eastern Province, with violent clashes reported between Shia protesters and security forces in both February and March. The recent upheavals remain a serious cause of concern for the House of Saud, which is wary of the ongoing uprisings in neighbouring Bahrain and Yemen. 

Comment

 The intermittent demonstrations, which have been occurring for more than a year, represent the growing dissatisfaction of the Shia minority within Saudi Arabia. Shia make up an estimated ten per cent of the total population, and constitute almost 70 per cent of the total population in the country’s oil-rich eastern regions.

The Shia minority have long complained of discrimination under Sunni rule and are calling for a constitutional monarchy, including representation in parliament, better access to employment and religious freedoms. So far, the protests have failed to gain major traction. Saudi Arabia’s “day of rage”, planned for March 2011 failed to gain ground, and demonstrations in the country’s east have yet to engender national consensus for political reform. Indeed, to a large extent, opposition movements remain divided and have failed to offer a unified vision for reform.

For the time being, the government’s ability to rely on an influx of oil reserves to buy off political unrest, its backing from powerful conservative Wahhabi elements, and its long-standing support from Western powers, mean that the Kingdom has little incentive to pursue widespread reforms. But, with an ongoing uprising in neighbouring Bahrain, looming economic concerns and the prospect of succession issues, some observers have raised questions about Saudi Arabia’s future stability. 

In Bahrain, the Shia uprisings against the Saudi-backed Sunni al-Khalifa monarchy have alarmed the House of Saud, who are suspicious that unrest in Bahrain could energise Saudi Arabia’s own Shia population.  Riyadh’s decision to send 1,000 troops to Bahrain in March 2011 underlines its fear of protests spilling over into its eastern regions. While those uprisings were quashed, many analysts suggest that Bahrain remains as divided as ever. Bahrain’s Shia population, which make up nearly two-thirds of the country’s overall population, have vowed to continue their pro-democracy uprising. Recently, there have been reports that Saudi Arabia has been reaching out to opposition group al-Wefaq, in the hope of seeing an end to the turmoil. For the time being, however, Bahrain appears to be locked in stalemate.

Meanwhile, the Shia insurgency in Yemen threatens stability in Saudi Arabia’s south-west. Though an election was held in February, Yemen remains divided; the Shia al-Houthi group still occupies much of the north and al-Qaida remains as entrenched as ever. Across the Gulf, the House of Saud is concerned by the so-called “Shia Crescent” that is developing and the democratic reforms staged in Iraq in recent years. Such threats come at a time when the Saudi Royal Family has had to deal with the loss of such key allies as Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Ben Ali in Tunisia.

Riyadh is also facing growing economic headaches domestically, which could give rise to more opposition and protests. In a country with huge oil revenues, the official unemployment rate is 10.5 per cent, reports Reuters, although these figures do not take into account the large numbers of working-age Saudis not counted as part of the labour force. Unsubstantiated reports put the figure as high as 20 to 30 per cent and it is widely believed that almost one-fifth of the population lives in poverty. Moreover, with reports of corruption and discrimination, Saudi Arabia’s oil wealth has had little impact on the quality of life of the average citizen, especially the Shia population living in the east.

Economic forecasts for Saudi Arabia also appear to be fraught with challenges. The Kingdom’s economic growth is expected to slow in 2012, as indicated by the Economy and Planning Minister, Mohammed al-Jasser, to Reuters earlier this month. There are also growing concerns about its reliance on oil, as efforts to diversify the economy have been largely unsuccessful. Given this state of affairs, it remains to be seen whether economic handouts to quell the unrest, such as the US$130 billion spending package announced last year to increase welfare benefits, will have the desired long-term effect.

Andrew Manners

FDI Research Assistant

South and West Asia Research Programme

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