Nuclear Talks with Iran: A Continuing Challenge

Indian Ocean SWA Articles

Wednesday, 18 April 2012

Background

Although both sides hailed their first meeting in 14 months as a positive step forward in easing fears that Iran might weaponise its nuclear programme, the most constructive outcome was probably the intention to meet again in Baghdad on 23 May.

Comment

Significant differences remain. Both sides agree, for instance, that talks should be guided by the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. Yet, Iran claims never to have violated the Treaty. Indeed, it asserts that all its nuclear material has been disclosed and that it allows International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to monitor all its nuclear facilities. The IAEA, however, accuses Iran of failing to co-operate and states there is no guarantee that Tehran is not hiding nuclear material that could ultimately be used for weapons.

Iran also faces significant challenges that were not present a year ago. Economic sanctions are certainly having an impact on its major source of revenue: the export of oil. International banking networks have almost completely excluded Iran, there is widespread discontent over the rising cost of living and declining employment opportunities, and the ever-present threat of military action from Israel and the US cannot be discounted.

These concerns, to a certain extent, are ameliorated by motives of patriotism, which are reinforced by a sense of justice and scientific achievement. Iran’s leadership may see its position strengthened by perceptions of international bullying. There is also the recognition that the West no longer calls for a complete halt to enrichment, as it did a year ago.

The West’s intentions are not completely clear, nor is there unanimity on how to approach Iran within the P5+1 (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany). Among the outcomes considered, are the suspension of medium-level enrichment, the closure of a deeply buried enrichment facility, greater access for inspectors and the removal of more highly enriched uranium.

Most analysts believe that Iran will attempt to reduce the impact of sanctions and that there may be some compromise to its previous position. But talks are likely to be protracted with minor concessions made, at least for some time.

Major General John Hartley AO (Retd)

Institute Director and CEO

Future Directions International

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