Yemen: An Approaching State of Anarchy

Indian Ocean SWA Articles

Wednesday, 11 April 2012

Backround 

The closure of the international airport in the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, highlights the challenge faced by recently appointed President Abed Mansour Hadi, who is attempting to reduce the influence of the former president.

Comment

On 7 April, armed tribesmen and uniformed troops closed Sana’a International Airport. This followed moves to replace a number of officials appointed by the previous president, Ali Abdullah Saleh.  These officials included the air force commander, a half-brother of Saleh; the head of the presidential guard, who is his cousin; and four provincial chiefs. Notably, the head of the powerful Republican Guard, a son; and the head of the Central Security Forces, a nephew; retained their appointments.

Tensions have escalated since Hadi reported his intention to reform the armed forces. The restructure of the military, which is part of the negotiated power transfer that allowed the former president to escape any form of prosecution, was always going to be a sticking point. Saleh continues to exert considerable influence in the country through those he appointed and by his heading of the influential political party, the General Peoples’ Congress.

It is difficult to see how Hadi can regain and retain any significant form of influence and control. At best he can play one political faction off against another. There appears little chance he can reconcile the differences of those who support or oppose the previous president or negate the often competing aims of tribal and separatist elements.

In the meantime, al-Qaida influenced attacks are likely to increase, with reports suggesting such attacks have been encouraged by Saleh supporters seeking to undermine the influence of the government. Other separatist movements have also increased their influence.

Nor are Saleh’s long-term intentions clear. Some analysts believe he will seek to undermine the current government’s authority to facilitate a political comeback in 2014.

No political or security improvement seems possible in the short-term. Meanwhile, the plight of the population continues to deteriorate, with significant food and water shortages, a decline in government revenues, a lack of employment opportunities and diminishing social services, such as health and education.

In short, Yemen is rapidly approaching a state of anarchy.

Major General John Hartley AO (Retd)

Institute Director and CEO

Future Directions International