American Military Increase: Limited in Force, Significant in Symbolism

Wednesday, 16 November 2011

Background

This week, President Obama will visit Darwin to announce an increase in the American military presence in the region. The agreement, to be announced on the 60^th anniversary of the United States-Australia alliance, is expected to lead to more joint military exercises and provision for a number of US military personnel to be rotated through Darwin. While the media has been quick to contend that this represents a significant shift in US strategic architecture, the limited force increases are, in reality, designed to be a symbolic message, aimed at fostering confidence in American longevity in the Indo-Pacific, and confirming the primacy of the ANZUS Treaty. 

Comment

Australia and the United States share a number of strategic objectives in the Indo-Pacific region, including: preventing dominance of the region by a single state or coalition of states; developing a system of relationships to ensure stability in the region; and securing the increasingly important sea lines of communication, to facilitate commerce and trade access and ensure continued prosperity. Changing power dynamics, most notably from the rise of China and India, coupled with enduring threats from North Korea’s nuclear programme; the formation of new regional institutions; competition for energy resources; and Islamic fundamentalism, all have the potential to disrupt US-Australian interests.

In this context, the Pentagon, like the Australian Department of Defence, is currently engaged in a force posture review. Analysts contend that the likely outcome may include an increase in the American military presence in the Indo-Pacific. Australia’s, and more particularly Darwin’s, position at the nexus of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, coupled with its existing infrastructure, will become an increasingly attractive prospect for a nominal American force with the aim of promoting US interests, rather than an integral forward deployment site. Potential increases to exercises, visitations and rotational basing at shared facilities, could substantially spread the United States influence, currently limited to existing facilities in north-east Asia and the Indian Ocean, without the prohibitive cost of developing new military infrastructure.

While the message President Obama wishes to portray is clear and warranted, the manner in which the United States is attempting to allay regional concerns and unease seems overly ambitious and even, perhaps, potentially damaging. Australia, along with India and Japan, has been identified by the United States as a key partner in a quadrilateral security arrangement. Yet, the proposed regional security architecture ignores the realities and idiosyncrasies of the member states. Article Nine of Japan’s constitution and strong pacifist public sentiment will be significant inhibitors to Japanese involvement in any multinational security forum. India remains ambivalent about American overtures for a greater security relationship and has observer status in the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) meetings, an institution of which China is a key member. China’s economic growth, and the commercial opportunities created in its wake, has created a number of opportunities for Australia. These factors will feature heavily in defining the future of the US-Australia alliance.       

Changes to military posture must be coupled with frank dialogue; the United States must engage all stakeholders in the region’s security and highlight their credentials to secure the region’s long-term stability. Failure to do so will lead to a theatre of bi-polar competition, an outcome inconsistent with the strategic objectives of all of the region’s states.

Australia must prudently position itself to maximise opportunities from these latest developments, while ensuring that its position within the region is not compromised. Analysts have argued that any increase in the military relationship announced this week will be seen in China as provocative. Yet, Australia through the ANZUS Treaty and its resulting policies and practices, has long had a strong relationship with the United States. This has been successfully managed alongside the strong and growing economic links with China; a rapport that must be stressed to Beijing. Further, Canberra must convey the message that the increased military links are not from a perception of military threat, but rather are a continued commitment to Indo-Pacific security and stability.

Liam McHugh

Manager

Northern Australia and Energy Security Research Programmes

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