La Niña Effects Set to Have Impact on Northern Australia

Wednesday, 09 November 2011

Background

According to recent predictions by the Bureau of Meteorology, the potential for climatic conditions to have a severe impact on Northern Australia this summer is high. Adverse weather conditions have the potential to disrupt operations in the coal and iron ore industries, highlighting the importance of accurate climatic predictions to support Australia’s economic interests.

Comment

It is predicted that the La Niña phenomenon will again have an impact on Australia this summer. The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast similar patterns to the 2010/2011 season from November onwards. Although the effects are unlikely to be as severe as those of last year, the heavy rain and flooding associated with La Niña are expected to disrupt commercial activity in Australia’s north. In particular, the mining and energy industries are at risk of a considerable reduction in output, because many larger sites are located in exposed areas in Queensland and Western Australia. Shoreline areas in the Northern Territory, too, will face heavy rain and strong winds, which may disrupt the area’s coastal industries.

La Niña is characterised by unusually cool ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. This influence changes normal weather patterns throughout Australia’s north, with the effects varying across regions. Indian Ocean warming combines with La Niña’s effects to produce hazardous and unpredictable weather throughout the continent. La Niña in Australia leads to a substantial increase in rainfall, which contributed to last season’s extensive flooding in south-east Queensland. Increased cyclone activity in the northern regions of both Queensland and Western Australia is also a feature; these storms have a tendency to alter in intensity as they traverse the top end.

The phenomenon poses a great threat to regional industry. Industries at risk over the next three months include: coal exports in Queensland; the iron ore and hydrocarbon sectors in Western Australia; and certain agricultural producing areas in both states. In the first quarter of 2011, for instance, weather associated with La Niña caused the loss of approximately 20 per cent of coal exports in Queensland. With the state’s industry being responsible for a large proportion of the world’s coal exports, the consequences of disruptions to supply are felt globally and reflected in price increases. Locally, severe weather causes widespread damage to already inadequate infrastructure. Many roads, rail and ports, both private and public, have recently been made inoperable by cyclones and flooding. The forecasts for this summer highlight the need for better maintenance of vital economic infrastructure.

The damaging effects of La Niña were evident in Western Australia in February of this year, with the Pilbara and Midwest regions being subjected to severe storms and flooding. Companies, including Rio Tinto and Woodside, were affected by the adverse conditions, which followed the emergence of two tropical cyclones in Australia’s northern region. Further illustrating the potential for severe weather to disrupt mining and energy projects, iron ore operations in the Pilbara were slowed due to transportation difficulties, while production ceased completely at the Enfield oil field in the offshore Carnarvon Basin. The impact on the economies of Northern Australia’s communities is significant, with temporary downturns resulting in large losses in revenue. The danger posed to workers resident at isolated sites increases the potential cost to Australia from precarious weather events.

In contrast to the Bureau of Meteorology’s position, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization stated earlier in the year that the effects of La Niña are essentially coming to an end, with no deleterious weather events likely. This calculation now appears to be off the mark, and highlights the importance of reliable weather information to commercial activity. Weather projections are significant to Australia’s interests, particularly with its vulnerable resource-based economy. Expectations of future climatic conditions play an important role in the decision making processes of Australian companies. Correct meteorological predictions are imperative to the planning and conduct of operations throughout the country, and therefore necessitate a high level of accuracy.

Jay Vella

FDI Research Intern

Northern Australia and Energy Security Research Programmes