AUSMIN Talks Confirm Primacy of Alliance

Wednesday, 28 September 2011

Background

In mid-September, Australia and the US held the annual ministerial-level meetings in San Francisco, to coincide with the anniversary of the ANZUS Treaty. In attendance were the Foreign and Defence Ministers of both countries, who gave joint speeches on the current priorities and future direction of the alliance. It has been sixty years since the Treaty was signed, and the rapidly changing dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region make Australia’s partnership with the US more important than ever. Both parties recognise the potential for mutual gain, based on greater co-operation, and have vowed to achieve such gains through negotiated future security arrangements.

Comment

Security and economic issues are at the forefront of concerns, as both countries seek to secure their commercial and strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region. The talks reaffirmed the shared views of Washington and Canberra on many international issues, and suggested an expanded strategic partnership in the coming decades.

Although talks are continuing as to the exact nature of co-operation, likely scenarios may include enhanced access to Australian Defence establishments; increased port calls by US naval vessels; and larger and more frequent, joint military exercises. These initiatives would benefit both countries as they seek to accommodate the rise of China, which has been identified positively in the AUSMIN communiqué. With President Obama confirming plans to travel to Australia later this year, it remains a possibility that specific plans for future co-operation will be announced during his visit.

The possibility of enhanced collaboration comes at an opportune time for Australia, as the Department of Defence undertakes its Force Posture Review. Any agreement with the US on the aforementioned scenarios should be incorporated into this review, with the aim of capitalising on greater co-operation. The expansion of RAAF base Learmonth in north-west WA and the Army’s Lavarack Barracks in Townsville are two potential sites where collaboration could be explored. An increase in US military activity in the Indo-Pacific would convey a commitment to regional security and serve to advance the strategic objectives of both Washington and Canberra. Importantly, it would also provide additional security to Australia’s chief economic sector, minerals and energy, which remains vulnerable in the north and north-west because of the isolated positions of current and future projects.

Greater synergies between the Australian Defence Force and the United States military would ensure that both states are capable of meeting the range of operations conducted by the modern military. The possibility of increased US visits would reduce the large costs associated with the development of new defence resources, as well as lessening the perception held by some states, that US activity in Asia is unilateral and provocative. Greater military co-operation would further allow an improved level of interoperability between the two forces, thereby imparting indispensable tactical knowledge to the ADF.

Despite the obvious benefits derived from the flow-on effects of the recent AUSMIN meetings, there remain some potential areas of conflict over a greater US presence in Australia. Four areas in particular must be considered. Chief among these is the message it sends to Australia’s largest trading partner, China. Aware of collusion between regional powers in countering its economic and military rise, China may take a negative view of any increased co-operation between Australia and the US. This could, potentially, result in a decline in relations. Locally, the negative image held by some of America’s nuclear-powered fleet, could cause some opposition to new agreements. Plans to host US naval vessels could meet with strong resistance from interest groups averse to such arrangements.

Careful consideration must be given to the possibility of Australia becoming a target for those who oppose the United States’ presence in the region. With the arrival of extremist Islamic elements in South-East Asia, close attention would be needed to threats arising from the region, and possible acts of terror toward US assets on Australian soil. Finally, with a changing military footprint in northern Australia, intentions and aims must be made clear to Australia’s northern neighbour, Indonesia. While Indonesia is not opposed to a US presence in Asia, the build up of superior military capabilities adjacent to its territory, in addition to current deployments, has the potential to promote confusion between two countries that have traditionally fostered vastly divergent regional outlooks. Australia would have to take the reaction of Indonesia into account, when formulating any new agreements with the United States.

Notwithstanding these challenges, Australia finds itself immersed in the so-called “Asian Century”. The changing strategic environment, marked by the rise of new regional powers with potentially conflicting goals, will create uncertainty in its northern region. Greater co-operation with the United States, will ensure Australia’s ability to pursue its regional objectives confidently. Additionally, the United States stands to benefit from the partnership by gaining greater opportunities from an increasingly important geo-strategic location.

Matt Jacob

Future Directions International Research Intern

Northern Australia and Energy Security Research Programmes