Northern Australia SWA Articles

Federal Budget 2012: Implications for Northern Australia

Federal Treasurer and Deputy Prime Minister, Wayne Swan, has released the 2012-13 Federal Budget. As promised, and on time, the budget returns Australia to a surplus of $1.5 billion; a remarkable feat, considering the estimated budget deficit for last year totals $44.4 billion. With constrained revenue streams, the surplus relies on fewer tax concessions and less government expenditure. ‘Spreading the benefits of the boom’ is the major initiative in this year’s budget, aimed at supporting lower-income families, the disabled and the aged.

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Findings of Defence Force Posture Review Announced

In May, almost a year after it was announced, the recommendations of the Force Posture Review were released. The report concluded that generally the Australian Defence Force (ADF) is currently appropriately positioned to meet existing, as well as emerging, challenges to national security. The findings were generally connected to improving the capability of the defence estate. Key recommendations included: upgrades to maritime facilities in Brisbane, HMAS Stirling and potentially Broome and Cairns; bare base and Cocos Island air capability upgrades; increased training; and more frequent visits to north-west Australia by trainees and senior Defence personnel.  

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Ongoing Crisis in PNG Places Upcoming Elections in Danger

Papua New Guinea’s Electoral Commissioner, Andrew Trawen, is seeking legal advice amidst pressure from MPs to delay PNG’s upcoming elections this June. This comes despite Prime Minister Peter O’Neill’s assurance that elections will proceed on time, in a safe and fair manner. The possibility of deferred elections and the widening divide within the PNG Government are increasing the threat of a violent election period. The country has been in increased turmoil since the failed mutiny attempt in January.

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Australia Key Component of US Asia-Pacific Posture

In November 2011, US President Barack Obama travelled to Australia to reaffirm the alliance. The US has stated its desire to expand its military ties with Australia, including the deployment of US Marines in the Northern Territory and increased rotations of US Air Force planes at RAAF Darwin and RAAF Tindal. In 2012, closer US-Australia engagement has involved dialogue about future maritime defence, with the likelihood of an increased presence of visiting US nuclear-powered warships and nuclear-armed submarines and a major expansion of the HMAS Stirling Naval Basesouth of Perth.

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Progress Report Foreshadows Enhanced Defence Infrastructure

In late January 2012, former defence secretaries Allan Hawke and Ric Smith released a progress report on the Force Posture Review (FPR).  Media commentary has suggested that it is a pessimistic appraisal of current defence positioning. On the contrary, the brief findings published so far suggest that an enhancement, rather than a large-scale realignment is necessary. Bounded by diplomatic and economic considerations, the FPR will likely mean an increase in existing defence infrastructure, and an increased presence in Northern Australia through visits and training.

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Mutiny Tip of the Iceberg in PNG Instability

The botched mutiny in Papua New Guinea (PNG) is symptomatic of much larger political issues. PNG bears many of the hallmarks of a failing state. Although calm seems to have returned to Port Moresby for the moment, the latest development in the year-long political crisis bodes poorly for a resolution in the short-term. PNG’s human development indicators are among the worst in the world. While the crisis continues, efforts to resolve social and economic issues will likely be futile. 

Beyond PNG, a chief concern for policy makers is how the crisis may transmit regionally. East Timor and Melanesian states suffer similar insecurities, albeit at a lower intensity than PNG. An indirect security concern also exists for Australia. Instability, leading to state failure, would be disastrous for Australia’s interests in the region and its own northern flank.

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Halls Creek Boom Could Break China’s Rare Earth Monopoly

The Shire of Halls Creek, in north-west Australia, is experiencing a rare earth mining boom. In the most recent example, George Bauk, Managing Director of Northern Minerals, announced in late November that the company hopes to start mining Rare Earth Elements (REE) in Browns Range by 2015. Australia’s expanded role in REE extraction comes at an opportune time, as China attempts to exploit its current monopoly over the market. To ensure industry viability, however, issues within the supply chain must be resolved.

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Defence Minister Forecasts Joint Military Base on Australia’s “Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier”

In late November 2011, Australian Defence Minister Stephen Smith confirmed that the Force Posture Review (FPR) will consider the future strategic role of the Cocos and Christmas Islands. Mr Smith suggested that while no formal proposal existed, the Cocos Islands could, in the future, host joint US-Australian naval and air assets. The plan has significant merit and would dramatically increase Australian power projection on the long-neglected Indian Ocean flank. Yet, this latest development, coupled with an increased American posture in Northern Australia, must be accompanied by regional engagement, or risk alienating regional states.

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American Military Increase: Limited in Force, Significant in Symbolism

This week, President Obama will visit Darwin to announce an increase in the American military presence in the region. The agreement, to be announced on the 60th anniversary of the United States-Australia alliance, is expected to lead to more joint military exercises and provision for a number of US military personnel to be rotated through Darwin. While the media has been quick to contend that this represents a significant shift in US strategic architecture, the limited force increases are, in reality, designed to be a symbolic message, aimed at fostering confidence in American longevity in the Indo-Pacific, and confirming the primacy of the ANZUS Treaty.

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La Niña Effects Set to Have Impact on Northern Australia

According to recent predictions by the Bureau of Meteorology, the potential for climatic conditions to have a severe impact on Northern Australia this summer is high. Adverse weather conditions have the potential to disrupt operations in the coal and iron ore industries, highlighting the importance of accurate climatic predictions to support Australia’s economic interests.

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