Northern Australia
Progress Report Foreshadows Enhanced Defence Infrastructure
In late January 2012, former defence secretaries Allan Hawke and Ric Smith released a progress report on the Force Posture Review (FPR). Media commentary has suggested that it is a pessimistic appraisal of current defence positioning. On the contrary, the brief findings published so far suggest that an enhancement, rather than a large-scale realignment is necessary. Bounded by diplomatic and economic considerations, the FPR will likely mean an increase in existing defence infrastructure, and an increased presence in Northern Australia through visits and training.
The Future Submarine Project: Implications for West Australia
The Australian Defence Force (ADF), as confirmed by the 2009 White Paper, plays a major role in countering potential threats and challenges to Australian security. Consistent with this, the ADF will, over the coming decades, undergo many innovations in weapon, intelligence, logistics, communications, command and control capabilities.
Amidst this climate of change, a major element of future force structure will be the acquisition of 12 new submarines. While these vessels are more than a decade from entering into active service, critical considerations must be addressed swiftly, to avoid cost and capability challenges. Featuring prominently in these deliberations, regardless of the ultimate makeup of the fleet, should be the role that WA may play in the Future Submarine project. With an advanced and capable manufacturing and technology sector, accompanied by requisite experience in complex projects, WA could play an enhanced role in the acquisition programme, operating within the strict parameters required by the Department of Defence.
Mutiny Tip of the Iceberg in PNG Instability
The botched mutiny in Papua New Guinea (PNG) is symptomatic of much larger political issues. PNG bears many of the hallmarks of a failing state. Although calm seems to have returned to Port Moresby for the moment, the latest development in the year-long political crisis bodes poorly for a resolution in the short-term. PNG’s human development indicators are among the worst in the world. While the crisis continues, efforts to resolve social and economic issues will likely be futile.
Beyond PNG, a chief concern for policy makers is how the crisis may transmit regionally. East Timor and Melanesian states suffer similar insecurities, albeit at a lower intensity than PNG. An indirect security concern also exists for Australia. Instability, leading to state failure, would be disastrous for Australia’s interests in the region and its own northern flank.
Halls Creek Boom Could Break China’s Rare Earth Monopoly
The Shire of Halls Creek, in north-west Australia, is experiencing a rare earth mining boom. In the most recent example, George Bauk, Managing Director of Northern Minerals, announced in late November that the company hopes to start mining Rare Earth Elements (REE) in Browns Range by 2015. Australia’s expanded role in REE extraction comes at an opportune time, as China attempts to exploit its current monopoly over the market. To ensure industry viability, however, issues within the supply chain must be resolved.
Defence Minister Forecasts Joint Military Base on Australia’s “Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier”
In late November 2011, Australian Defence Minister Stephen Smith confirmed that the Force Posture Review (FPR) will consider the future strategic role of the Cocos and Christmas Islands. Mr Smith suggested that while no formal proposal existed, the Cocos Islands could, in the future, host joint US-Australian naval and air assets. The plan has significant merit and would dramatically increase Australian power projection on the long-neglected Indian Ocean flank. Yet, this latest development, coupled with an increased American posture in Northern Australia, must be accompanied by regional engagement, or risk alienating regional states.
American Military Increase: Limited in Force, Significant in Symbolism
This week, President Obama will visit Darwin to announce an increase in the American military presence in the region. The agreement, to be announced on the 60th anniversary of the United States-Australia alliance, is expected to lead to more joint military exercises and provision for a number of US military personnel to be rotated through Darwin. While the media has been quick to contend that this represents a significant shift in US strategic architecture, the limited force increases are, in reality, designed to be a symbolic message, aimed at fostering confidence in American longevity in the Indo-Pacific, and confirming the primacy of the ANZUS Treaty.
La Niña Effects Set to Have Impact on Northern Australia
According to recent predictions by the Bureau of Meteorology, the potential for climatic conditions to have a severe impact on Northern Australia this summer is high. Adverse weather conditions have the potential to disrupt operations in the coal and iron ore industries, highlighting the importance of accurate climatic predictions to support Australia’s economic interests.
Government Attempts to Link Welfare to Truancy
In mid-October, in response to recommendations from the “Stronger Futures in the Northern Territory report”, the Federal Government announced the expansion of initiatives linking school attendance to welfare payments.
Torres Strait Islanders Push for Secession
In mid-October, Queensland Premier Anna Bligh, reignited debate on the long-term future of the Torres Strait Islands, by backing the Islanders’ long-term aspirations for succession from the state in a letter to Prime Minister Julia Gillard. As noted by Ms Gillard, however, increased autonomy would have lasting implications for the community.
AUSMIN Talks Confirm Primacy of Alliance
In mid-September, Australia and the US held the annual ministerial-level meetings in San Francisco, to coincide with the anniversary of the ANZUS Treaty. In attendance were the Foreign and Defence Ministers of both countries, who gave joint speeches on the current priorities and future direction of the alliance. It has been sixty years since the Treaty was signed, and the rapidly changing dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region make Australia’s partnership with the US more important than ever. Both parties recognise the potential for mutual gain, based on greater co-operation, and have vowed to achieve such gains through negotiated future security arrangements.