China-US Relations: Mr Xi Goes to Washington

Wednesday, 22 February 2012

Background

Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping completed an official visit to the United States from 13-17 February. He met with US leaders, including President Barack Obama, and had talks with American business elites.  He also visited the agricultural state of Iowa and hi-tech California. Xi’s trip has been widely seen as a marker for the Sino-US relationship in the next five to ten years.

Comment

Choosing St. Valentine’s Day to meet with the US President may have been accidental, but it conjures certain imagery. As one of the most important and, perhaps, most complicated, bilateral relations in the world, what kind of “romance” will the US and China have?

Xi’s trip to the US attracted attention from all over the world. Analysts are eager to see what the man who probably will rule China in the next decade can do to improve Sino-US relations. The two countries are far from being “lovers”.  In fact, the relationship has been increasingly tense over the past two or three years. It is not always easy to take an optimistic view, as one can argue that conflict between the US and China is unavoidable, given that the US is strategically “returning” the Asia-Pacific, if it ever left, and, at the same time, the Chinese seemingly have become more ambitious in the region. The drama in the South China Sea is a case in point. In response to questions from the American media, Xi suggested that ‘the Pacific is large enough to accommodate both China and the US.’ But with the US presidential election and the once-a-decade leadership change in China approaching, we are likely to see more friction in the coming months. Domestic politics will play an influential – and perhaps more negative – role in the Sino-US relationship. The uncertainty of the world economic recovery, disputes in the Sino-US trade relationship, and different opinions over many issues in the Middle East, complicate the relationship.  Good communication is needed now more than ever.

In Xi’s talks with US leaders, history is frequently mentioned. There is good reason to for that. Forty years ago, when President Richard Nixon offered his hand to Premier Zhou Enlai on a cold February day in Beijing, they were creating history. Xi Jinping no doubt hopes that his US colleagues also learn from their shared history that a good relationship between the two countries is not only in the core interests of the two peoples, but is also good for world prosperity, stability and peace. US Vice President Joe Biden assured his guest that the Obama Administration has never formed any strategy aimed at containing China. Instead, the US is willing to strengthen co-operation with China in the Asia-Pacific region. Chinese analysts may not completely believe that the US really has no strategy of containing China, but most of them would agree that the US is playing a game of hedging, with containment and co-operation running in parallel. It might be similarly difficult for the US policy élites to believe that China really has no intention of undermining US leadership in the region. In this context, Xi’s trip is extremely valuable in terms of increasing mutual confidence.

Besides the serious discussions in Washington, there were some “relaxing” activities. A host family reunion and an NBA basketball game allowed people to see the human side of this Communist leader-in-waiting. In 1979, when the photo of Deng Xiaoping wearing a cowboy hat in Texas appeared in newspapers, for many Americans, China no longer seemed so far away. Now, Xi’s public diplomacy skills are on show.

But, for Xi himself, the trip is definitely not as easy as his first visit, 27 years ago. With the Eighteenth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party to be held later this year, this visit was more like a test. He needed to prove to his comrades in Beijing that he is capable of handling China’s most important foreign relationship.

Overall, Xi’s visit can be called a success. The mainstream media in both countries gave it positive coverage. US leaders had the opportunity to get Xi’s opinion on the Sino-US relationship and many other international affairs, and to build closer personal ties with him; it was equally important for Xi. The leaders reached some consensus: Xi stated that there is no other choice but for the two countries to co-operate, and Obama agreed. When Xi said that China’s rise should be viewed rationally, the US leaders stated that they are happy to see China’s success. Both parties promised to strengthen military exchanges in the future. Some significant disagreement still exists, however. Issues like human rights, Tibet and trade protectionism still provoke criticism.

Xi’s busy schedule and the high-profile reception on the US side are like a long-term investment. But, it would be naïve to believe that the bilateral relationship can go to a higher level immediately. That is partly because Xi does not yet have the power to make foreign policy decisions. More importantly, the “trust deficit” between the two giants cannot be eliminated in a short time. A root cause of that trust deficit is the uncertainty in the two countries’ perceptions of each other. It may take a while for them to get used to the new situation. To paraphrase Henry Kissinger, ‘China and the US must co-evolve’.

Fujian (Frank) Li

Future Directions International Visiting Fellow

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