Sudan on Brink of War As Leaders Negotiate Terms over Sovereignty, Trade and Oil

Wednesday, 15 February 2012

Background

Sudan and South Sudan commenced negotiations in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, on 11 February, aimed at resolving differences between the two countries on issues that include oil, trade, borders and immigration. 

Comment

The talks come amid fears of further conflict between the two sides, after South Sudanese President Salva Kiir ordered the new country’s army on 8 February to deploy along the border with Sudan and to prepare for a possible war.

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has warned that the climate between the two countries was ‘closer to a climate of war than one of peace,’ a statement that President Kirr said amounted to a declaration of war. Kirr cited fears that Sudan was preparing to ‘invade the South and reclaim the territory by force after losing oil.’^[1]

When South Sudan gained independence in July 2011, it took with it three-quarters of Sudan’s oil. With all the pipeline and export facilities located in the north, however, both countries have found themselves in a difficult position. Sudan is demanding US$32 per barrel for the transit of South Sudanese oil. South Sudan, however, is unwilling to pay above normal international charges of around one dollar. It would rather the oil ‘remain underground’ to benefit the next generation.^[2] This presents a problem for Sudan, a country now badly in need of hard currency. 

On Saturday, the two countries signed a framework agreement, including a non-aggression pact and an agenda for negotiations. Sudan is awaiting South Sudan’s reply to its commercial offer, which includes the sovereignty, transit and services fees for the exportation of South Sudanese oil through the north.

Global Witness, a human rights watchdog based in London, was quoted in the Sudan Tribune as saying that international intervention is needed to help the two countries reach peaceful resolutions. ‘The longer this dispute goes on and both economies continue to suffer, the more likely it is that the situation will escalate.’

Ashley Woermann

Future Directions International Research Assistant

Indian Ocean Research Programme

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