Egyptian Parliament Sworn In Amid Expectation and Uncertainty

Wednesday, 01 February 2012

Background

On 23 January 2012, Egypt’s parliament was finally sworn in amid high expectations and lingering uncertainty. As the representatives, the first to be democratically elected in 60 years, take office, many challenges remain.

Comment

While many view Egypt’s elections as a triumph, the creation of the country’s parliament has brought with it a new set of problems. One year on from the revolution, Egypt is still experiencing anti-government demonstrations and its newly-elected parliament must decide what role, if any, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) will continue to play in Egypt’s future.

The current ruling party in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood. Previously banned under former president Hosni Mubarak, the Brotherhood won 38 per cent of parliamentary seats, the High Elections Committee reports. It is widely believed that the Brotherhood wants to see the military out of power sometime in the future. As Shadi Hamid, an Egypt expert at the Brookings Doha Centre said, ‘the military wants to effectively stay in power behind the scenes. That certainly is not what the Brotherhood wants.’^[1] The Brotherhood has not yet, however, demanded that the SCAF give up power. In some instances, it has supported the military in the hope of achieving further stability.

Meanwhile, many believe that the revolution, which began in January 2011, will not be complete until the military has relinquished control. Demonstrators are still calling for the end of military-backed rule. Until that happens, protests and violence will likely persist in Egypt.

In an attempt to bolster public support, the Egyptian military has announced that the three decade-old state of emergency – widely used by Mubarak to quash opposition – will be suspended, except in instances of “thuggery.” Human rights advocates have called on Egypt’s parliament to insist on a genuine roll-back of the repressive laws, claiming abuse of such laws by the military is still rife.

The military’s move is likely to do little to appease the distrust between pro-democracy forces and the military and there are now growing fears that the Brotherhood may broker a deal with SCAF. Early parliamentary sessions saw messages of support to the SCAF, but there were speeches denouncing it, too. The divisions in parliament underline the precarious position that it finds itself in. If parliament aligns itself too closely with the military, direct confrontation with pro-democracy forces is likely to ensue and demonstrations will almost certainly continue. Conversely, support for the revolutionaries would arouse the ire of the SCAF, a prospect parliamentarians are desperate to avoid.

As the Brotherhood hopes to strike a balance between pro-democracy forces and the SCAF, Egypt’s interim government, now barely a week old, must also address the alarming signs of a growing economic crisis, in which more than 40 per cent of people live on, or below, the poverty line.

How the newly-elected parliament will tackle Egypt’s economic challenges, while appeasing both the SCAF and pro-democracy forces, remains to be seen. As Wael Gamal, an economic and managing editor of al-Shorouk newspaper lamented, ‘none of the political parties in parliament have the ability to fulfil the demands of the revolution … I have no doubt we will see another confrontation, another uprising, very soon.’^[2]

Andrew Manners

Future Directions International Research Assistant

South and West Asia Research Programme

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