Yemen: Long-term Structural Weaknesses Exposed by Political Crisis

Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Background

Yemen faces an unfolding humanitarian crisis.  While international attention focuses on political and separatist tensions, for a growing number of Yemenis, daily survival and food procurement are paramount.

Comment

There is little doubt that the protracted nature of Yemen’s internal security situation has exacerbated the prospect for widespread poverty and food shortages. A lack of security has also made international assistance more difficult. Fuel shortages, caused partly by the conflict between various groups, have led to price surges and unemployment.

All these issues have worsened the situation but have not necessarily been its cause. In other words, the political crisis has exposed and worsened long-term structural weaknesses.

Yemen’s population is likely to double in the next 10 to 15 years. This situation is exacerbated by unprecedented numbers of refugees arriving from Somalia and Ethiopia. In 2011, some 103,000 refugees were involved, or roughly double the number for the previous year. Somalis are fleeing either violence or drought; Ethiopians because they see no prospects in their impoverished state.

Most food requirements in Yemen are satisfied through imports. This includes up to 90 per cent of wheat and 100 per cent of rice. Both food and water require transportation. The fuel crisis, which has existed since mid-2011, means that the cost of transporting goods has increased considerably. A similar situation applies to water, which has to be extracted from aquifers and transported to users.  As a result, over the last 12 months, food prices have increased by over 60 per cent.

The result is less water to produce food, fewer fishing vessels able to operate, cities without electricity, reduced transportation and increasing unemployment.

A substantial part of the Yemeni population is increasingly adopting survival measures. These include reducing the number of meals per day, taking children from school and increasing debt levels. 

Nor is there any immediate solution in sight. Foreign donors and aid agencies are increasingly reluctant to operate in Yemen. Corruption is rife, with only a small number of people controlling the import and movement of goods. Many businesses are also closing or leaving, recognising the difficulties facing the country.

Major General John Hartley AO (Retd)

Institute Director and CEO

Future Directions International

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