Yemen: A Highly Uncertain Future

Wednesday, 18 January 2012

Background

Despite the stated intention of the Yemeni Government to hold elections in February, and President Saleh’s agreement to stand down after that event, the country’s future is anything but clear.

Comment

None of the issues that caused the present unrest have been resolved. The alternatives of continuing unrest, a violent collapse and a peaceful transfer of power are all still possible.

The most positive analysis suggests that a regime change is unlikely and that Saleh’s family and supporters will remain the dominant force. Indeed, Saleh may not have agreed to resign unless he was assured of this outcome.

Alternatively, elections could be difficult to conduct and the results might trigger further insecurity.  Nor are the fundamental concerns in any way diminished. The northern rebellion, southern separatist movement and al-Qaida’s influence have not declined. Tribal differences that caused the present situation remain unresolved.

The number of displaced people has risen to 700,000 and somewhere between five and seven million people will experience severe food and water shortages in 2012. The increase in malnutrition and communicable diseases, reduced school attendance and diminished job opportunities can only lead to increased instability.

Yemen will also continue to rely heavily on Saudi support if it is to survive economically.

On the other hand, the populist nature of the revolution appears to have largely dissipated. Youthful demonstrators have become minor players. Instead, four strongmen have emerged, all of whom support the continuation of a Saleh-type regime.

The President probably will step down after the election. He will most likely be replaced by Vice President Abdullah Hadi, who will continue the policies of the present government. Importantly, Hadi will be supported by the President’s eldest son, Ahmer Ali Saleh, who heads the Republican Guard and Special Forces.

Nor is General Ali Mohsen, a Saleh critic, likely to continue his opposition once Saleh withdraws. Mohsen has played a major role in identifying members of the newly formed military council and will receive an important position in managing Yemen’s future.

While some semblance of order may emerge, many of the long-term fundamental issues remain unresolved. The prospects for Yemen becoming a viable state, therefore, remain highly uncertain.

Major General John Hartley AO (Retd)

Institute Director and CEO

Future Directions International

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