Yemen: The Role of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

Wednesday, 12 October 2011

Background

US-born Yemeni cleric Anwar al-Awlaki reportedly was killed by a drone-launched missile in late September. His death highlights the continuing US concern that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is internationalising its activities and seeking to influence and recruit English-speaking Muslims.

Comment

Many Yeminis have supported radical Islam for decades. Several thousand served in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation and were welcomed back as heroes. Almost half the interns in Guantanamo Bay are Yemenis.

AQAP, however, was not formed until 2008 when Saudi al-Qaeda leaders, responding to a successful crackdown by Saudi authorities, fled to Yemen.  In 2009, Saudi officials released a list of 85 terrorist suspects; 26 were claimed to be in Yemen.

Today AQAP is believed to have between 200 and 300 fighters and to be supported by thousands of locals. Its affiliation with al-Qaeda central, however, is likely to be minimal in operational terms. Its ideological connections, on the other hand, are strong. This adds to its ability to motivate and recruit its members.

AQAP claims responsibility for numerous attacks. These include the failed August 2009 attack on Saudi Prince Muhammad bin Nayef, two attacks on the US embassy in Sana’a and numerous oil pipeline bombings. AQAP is also held responsible for the failed attempt to destroy a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas Day in 2009, as well as two attempts to destroy US-bound cargo planes in 2010.

In addition to al-Awlaki’s death, Samir Khan – the creator and editor of AQAP’s English-language magazine – was also killed. There is little doubt that their deaths, at least for some time, will see a substantial decline in AQAP’s ability to link with potential recruits and supporters among English speaking Muslims.

On the other hand, AQAP’s operational capabilities remain largely unchanged and are likely to expand as the increasingly anarchic situation in Yemen continues.

Major General John Hartley AO (Retd)

FDI Institute Director and CEO

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