Independent Strategic Analysis of Australia’s Global Interests

Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean is critical to global trade and food and energy security. Resources increasingly are being exploited by its littoral and island states. It is also a stage for the pursuit of global strategic and regional military and security interests.

Leadership in South Africa: Who will be the Next President of the ANC?

The two current frontrunners to replace Jacob Zuma as president of the African National Congress at the next ANC Elective Conference in December are Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and former African Union Commission Chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. While both are very accomplished, neither has a perfect track record and each has failings or perceived weaknesses.

Japanese Infrastructure Deal with Bangladesh May Disrupt “Belt and Road” Initiative

Loans provided by the Japan International Co-operation Agency will play a significant role in constraining the influence of China in Bangladesh.

Indonesia and Malaysia: ‘Please use our Palm Oil’

Rather than pleading to the EU to be more lenient, Indonesia and Malaysia should work to ensure that their palm oil exports are sustainable and eligible for certification.

India’s Gilgit-Baltistan Problem – Part Two: What Can New Delhi Do?

13 July 2017 | Associate Papers, Indian Ocean

Almost one year after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi drew international attention to Gilgit-Baltistan, there is little to no clarity on his government’s broad policy objectives for the disputed territory. It is unclear if the issue is merely being used to score brownie points with the domestic audience, to divert attention away from the crisis in Kashmir, to raise the cost of the CPEC or as a bargaining chip with Pakistan and/or China.

Modi in Israel: Agriculture, Water Security and Keeping Policy Promises

Prime Minster Narendra Modi’s trip to Israel demonstrates India’s desire to expand the bilateral partnership beyond defence and into food and water security, as well as his commitment to India’s farming community.

Diplomacy on the Sidelines: Jokowi at the G-20 Summit

At the summit, Jokowi pushed for greater economic ties with the US and Australia while campaigning to protect Indonesian palm oil exports from increased regulations in the European Union.

South Africa set to Produce Biggest Maize Harvest in Four Decades

High rainfall in parts of South Africa after two years of El Niño drought has put it on track to produce a record-high maize harvest. Its good fortune could boost exports and relieve the food shortages that have resulted from poor harvests in East Africa.

India’s Gilgit-Baltistan Problem – Part One: Pakistan’s Dependence on Gilgit-Baltistan

11 July 2017 | Associate Papers, Indian Ocean

Gilgit-Baltistan is vital to the water, energy and conventional security of Pakistan. Its importance is only likely to increase because of the continued dependence of a large part of Pakistan’s growing population on agriculture that is under stress due to climate change and the growing dependence of the economy on Chinese investments.

China’s Threat to Review Its Stance on Sikkim Could Backfire

Absent a careful evaluation of every decision that they make in the course of the current standoff between their troops, China and India risk entering into a conflict which they can ill afford and that could retard their growth for a significant period of time.

India Will Resist China’s Encroachment but Both Must Adjust to New Realities

China’s thinly-veiled warning to India to heed the lessons of its loss in their 1962 war and India’s retort that it is a different country from that of the time both fail to recognise their new reality: neither can afford a war with the other.

Publication Guide

  • Associate papers are primary source assessments written by FDI associates. The assessment topics range from regional bilateral relationships and opportunities and challenges in our neighbouring countries.

  • Feature interviews are interviews conducted by an FDI Research Manager. Interview topics range from the sustainability of our planet to the improved provision of emergency food aid.

  • Normally issued in hardcopy, these represent a comprehensive study of one of FDI’s four research areas.

  • Strategic alerts are priority current intelligence items. We provide these alerts when events such as military deployments or foreign election results occur.

  • A 1500 to 3000 word, single topic assessment.

  • A number of short articles addressing current intelligence topics, issued each week.

  • A record of discussions resulting from a single, or series of, roundtable conferences.

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