Indian Ocean
Middle East: Reactions to Morsi’s Consolidation of Power in Egypt
- Wednesday, 22 August 2012
On 12 August 2012, recently-elected Egyptian President, Muhammad Morsi, made the surprise move of retiring the heads of every division of the Egyptian armed forces, all of whom were members of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). He also cancelled the oversight of the drafting of a new constitution, which the SCAF had awarded itself in June.
Most prominent amongst the personnel changes was the replacement of SCAF leader, Field Marshal Muhammad Hussein Tantawi, as Minister of Defence and Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces. Morsi’s actions have been met with unease throughout the region, particularly within Israel and the Gulf states, following renewed violence in the Sinai Peninsula and uncertainty about the nature of the Muslim Brotherhood-linked government.
Asia Shields Iran from Sanctions – For Now
- Wednesday, 22 August 2012
Asian demand is sustaining the Iranian regime against the full-force of sanctions. Attempts by the regime in Tehran to mitigate their impact, however, will be futile. The effect of sanctions may provide the stimulus for a renewed opposition movement that will be influential in the 2013 presidential elections.
Iran Hoping to Counter Isolation as Non-Aligned Movement Summit Draws Near
- Wednesday, 22 August 2012
Tehran will host the summit of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) from 26 to 31 August. An organisation of 120 members, it has the specific declared aims of anti-aggression, greater regional (or south-south) co-operation and economic integration. Of particular focus is the anti-US and anti-imperialist sentiment that many in the group often espouses. The controversy of this year’s summit is that it comes at a time when Iran faces immense sanctions by the Western world and intense scrutiny regarding its nuclear energy programme. Tehran will be hoping that a successful summit will show that it is not isolated and will bolster its regional soft power.
Afghanistan Defence Minister’s Resignation: Implications
- Wednesday, 22 August 2012
For the last eight years, Abdul Rahim Wardak has been the Afghan Defence Minister, but a recent Vote of No Confidence by the national parliament has forced his removal and subsequent resignation. The problem associated with these events is two-fold: can President Karzai maintain stability and what will this mean for the coalition countries, particularly the United States, as the 2014 troop drawdown agreed upon in the 2010 Lisbon summit approaches.
India-Australia: Ushering in an Era of Maritime Prosperity in the Indian Ocean Region
- Friday, 17 August 2012
- As a sea-faring nation, Australia is heavily dependent on seaborne trade and commerce for its economic growth and prosperity. Its maritime threat perceptions are similar to those of other littoral countries.
- The Indian Ocean region is of increasing geo-strategic importance to Australia. Developments that create a security dilemma are viewed with concern by all of the region’s stakeholders.
- Of the littoral countries, Australia perceives that India is in a much better position than most to address such issues and, accordingly, views it as a potential regional partner.
- India and Australia have identified areas of convergence through various platforms to build a robust strategic relationship, with the maritime environment being one of the most important components.
Growing Food Insecurity in Kenya’s Cities
- Wednesday, 15 August 2012
Kenya is experiencing the highest rate of urbanisation in Sub-Saharan Africa. The high population density of unplanned urban settlements, combined with rising food prices, is generating concerns for food security in its cities. Kenya’s urban poor have limited possibilities for alternative strategies for dealing with food inflation, creating the need for government intervention to ensure access to food for all people.
US-China Rivalry Surfaces during Clinton’s Africa Visit
- Wednesday, 15 August 2012
United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton began a ten-day tour of Africa on 31 July 2012. It included visits to Senegal, South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia and Malawi. Regional security and economic issues took priority, although Clinton’s attempts to promote stability and increased US investment in the region, were overshadowed by perceptions of US-China competition for trade relations and political influence in Africa.
Federalism in Nepal: A Step Towards Divergence?
- Wednesday, 15 August 2012
Federalism has been a hot topic in Nepalese politics for some time now. Despite having been re-named the “Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal” in 2008, the country has yet to acquire a truly federal design, as the architects of Nepalese federalism are unable to come to a consensus. Deadlock has occurred over the model of federalism: should it be based on ethnicity or geography? Maoist and ethnically-based parties are demanding the former, while other parties, including the Nepali Congress (the main opposition) prefer a geographically-based model. One danger of choosing the ethnic model is that Nepal may lose its longstanding sense of national unity.
Ethnic Violence and Burma Reforms
- Wednesday, 15 August 2012
With Burma taking its first steps towards economic openness and political change after decades of isolation and suppression, the continuing ethnic violence, directed towards the Muslim Rohingya minority, represents a source of concern. The country’s return to a “state of emergency” in the affected area in June 2012, calls into question Burma’s ability to continue its process of reform without falling into violence or a return to suppression. The unity required to move forward, involves finding a solution to Burma’s many long-standing internal tensions.
Yongxing Island: China’s Diego Garcia in the South China Sea?
- Wednesday, 15 August 2012
China’s decision to set up a military garrison at Sansha on Yongxing Island (also known as Woody Island) in the Paracel chain, along with the creation of a city administration, could be seen as a step in expanding its military reach, strengthening its claims in the South China Sea, and, finally, countering the United States’ decision to pivot towards the region.