Zimbabwe’s Food and Water Security Outlook
- Wednesday, 04 July 2012
By Kumbirai Kuwuya
Research Assistant
FDI Global Food and Water Security Programme
Key Points
- 1.4 million Zimbabweans facing food shortages in 2012.
- Water is underutilised, with only 22 per cent of runoff stored and utilised.
- Most of the farming land also remains underutilised, due to the effects of the Land Reform Programme in the 1990s.
- 10 per cent of arable land could be lost by 2080, due to temperature increases.
- While droughts are a natural phenomenon, Zimbabwe needs to invest in the technologies necessary to improve its ability to cope with them.
Background
The decline in rainfall over the past six years, has led to droughts and famine in Zimbabwe. This has culminated in a reversal of its role, from being the continent’s biggest net exporter of food output, to a situation where it is requesting food aid from donors. A 45 per cent reduction in agricultural output this year, has led to a projected 1.4 million people facing food shortages. Sporadic rainfall patterns, along with climate changes, have also aggravated the drought. According to the United Nations 2010 report, ‘Climate Change and Health, Challenges and Opportunities’ a ‘business as usual’ approach to climate change in Africa will not provide relief from the vulnerabilities caused by increasing temperatures. The report asserts that the effects of climate change will be disproportionate, with poorer countries faring worst from droughts and famine. This is mainly due to their lack of the funds needed to undertake the necessary changes to keep up with climate change and also to seek alternative solutions.
Geology and analysis
Zimbabwe is a land-locked, semi-arid country. The rainy season normally begins in mid-October and ends in early May. This trend is changing, however, with rains starting as late as early December and ending as late as June. Most water sources, such as rivers and lakes, are not perennial and are known to dry up in winter because of the minimal rainfall during this period. Dams have been constructed on commercial farms, in the cities and rural areas, to ensure that water supplies are sustained. According to the International Commission on Large Dams, Zimbabwe has 2,200 dams with 213 classified as large (i.e. with a dam wall of at least 15 metres).
The annual rainfall ranges from 300mm in the south to 1000mm in the north. This season’s highest total, however, is 755mm; lower than last season’s 948mm. The south-western parts of the country received rainfall totals below 300mm (USAID 2012, Food and Water Situation in Zimbabwe).
Water storage is mainly dependent on run-off water. The mean annual run-off for the whole of Zimbabwe is 19,910 million cubic metres, yet only 22 per cent, excluding water drawn from the Zambezi and Limpopo rivers, is stored. Lack of funding, expertise and technology are the reasons given by government for their failure to maximise water storage.
2012 Rainfall distribution pattern in millimetres
Source: Department of Meteorological Services
Zimbabwe has three major rivers. Two of them originate outside Zimbabwe –the Zambezi in the north and the Limpopo in South Africa. Harnessing these water sources has the potential to prevent water shortages. Neither is, at present, used for domestic or commercial purposes.
Lake Kariba is one of the largest artificial lakes in the world, formed by damming the Zambezi River. It alone accounts for 160 cubic kilometres of water. The source of the Save, the third major river, is situated south of the capital Harare on the eastern slopes of the Highveld. The Zambezi River, which marks much of the northern border with Zambia, is the longest of all African rivers that flow into the Indian Ocean. Near the north-western tip of Zimbabwe, the river drops over Victoria Falls, a cataract that is about 106 metres high at its maximum and nearly 1.5 kilometres wide.
Geological Distribution of water sources in Zimbabwe:
Besides surface water storage, Zimbabwe also has numerous underground water sources in the form of springs and aquifers. These are formed in associated sedimentary formations. The Nyamandhlovu aquifer in the dry south-western part of the country is one of the largest aquifers. Secondary aquifers exist in crystalline formations and cover two-thirds of the country. Some of these have been utilised in the form of boreholes and wells, both in the cities and rural areas. Surprisingly, not enough boreholes have been sunk to eradicate water shortages in the south-western parts of the country. There is now a surge in water usage from boreholes, however, especially in urban centres in the northern regions. The water quality is generally good, due to the minimal usage of agricultural chemicals in Zimbabwe.
Analysis
Farming activity in Zimbabwe is mainly subsistence, due to a lack of technology and up-to-date farming techniques. Currently, most of the farming land remains underutilised, suffering from the effects of the Land Reform Programme in the 1990s, which saw land being expropriated from white farmers and given to black farmers. Over 4,000 commercial farms were expropriated. The new farmers lack the resources, know-how and support to continue farming on the previous scale. Some of these farmers sub-let parts of their farms and others leave it idle, because they lack the funds and expertise to maximise land usage.
Cotton, maize, wheat, tobacco and sorghum are the main crops in Zimbabwe. Maize is the staple food and is also the most common crop, accounting for approximately 70 per cent of total crop output. Agriculture contributes 20 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product. Its current failure to reach target output levels is having highly detrimental effects on the economy as a whole. This year, from the reported 1.69 million hectares of maize planted, the output is expected to fall by 45 per cent. The target for the wheat crop was 400,000 tonnes, but it produced only 75,000 tonnes.
Drought and the socio-economic implications
The drought in Zimbabwe has had far reaching ramifications for the nation’s physical environment. Land degradation, particularly in rural areas, is widespread due to the constant search for better pastures for livestock. While farming land is available in abundance, land for pastures is not. This is because both pasture and farming land have particular qualities that make them appropriate for one or the other activity only. So whatever scarce pastures are available, they have to be shared and competed for. Some farmers have resorted to cultivation on river banks, producing erosion and sedimentation of the rivers, and further depleting water sources.
All of these factors have contributed to a high unemployment rate of 95 per cent in the rural areas, triggering a continuous rural to urban migration trend and growing pressure on urban resources. The high level of unemployment has led to massive deforestation, as trees have been cut down and sold. Deforestation has been linked to increased water runoff and river siltation, with a consequent reduction in water levels. Drought and famine have indirectly led to social ills like theft, prostitution and human rights abuses, as rural folk leave farming seeking other activities to sustain themselves.
The Zimbabwean Meteorological Department has been inconsistent in its delivery of weather reports. This has contributed to gross inaccuracies, so that crop planting has occurred at the wrong time. The Meteorological authorities have blamed a lack of funding to purchase technology that can provide better predictions of weather patterns and a lack of adequately trained personnel. According to the 2012 USAID Report, however, the Zimbabwean Meteorological office did warn against early planting. These warnings were ignored because of the entrenched farming cultures and habits.
Water shortages have also been compounded by the growth of toxic algae in urban water sources. The capital’s main water source, Lake Chivero, is said to be constantly contaminated by algae due to eutrophication and authorities have had to seek other water sources. Cases of diarrhoea, nausea and headaches have been reported from drinking the tap water. The presence of algae is a recurring problem. Consequently, water rationing in urban areas is the current way of life in Zimbabwe.
Not only is this frustrating for residents, but it was the catalyst for one of the nation’s worst disease outbreaks. Due to the haphazard rationing that favoured those in affluent suburbs and saw those in low income suburbs going for weeks without water, some residents dug wells in their backyards without permission from the authorities. Some of these illegitimate wells were contaminated by underground sewerage water, leading to a Cholera outbreak. According to the United Nations World Health Organization (WHO), there were 79,613 Cholera cases, including 3,731 fatalities, in less than a year after the first cases were reported.
Famine and Availability of Alternative Food Sources
The food situation remains critical in Zimbabwe, with further shortages expected this year. The government introduced the Grain Loan Scheme in 2011, as a way to help maize farmers purchase implements. The scheme has been unsuccessful, however, due to the persistent spells of drought experienced during 2012. The United Nations is currently making appeals for donations, to raise up to $258 million to rescue the nation from the impending famine.
The Zimbabwean government has also sought relief from its northern neighbour Zambia. An agreement was reached and Zambia will supply Zimbabwe with maize worth $50 million. Authorities, however, are doubtful if the stock will be sufficient to sustain the nation. Programmes have been introduced to encourage farmers in the drier regions to grow more drought resistant plants, such as millet and sorghum. They were not fully implemented, however, due to shortage of funds and lack of skilled manpower to educate farmers. According to University of Zimbabwe lecturer, Dr Amon Murwira, Zimbabwe’s arable land is 85 per cent of the total area. A loss of 10 per cent is likely to occur by 2080, due to predicted national temperature increases of two degrees Celsius.
The Grain Marketing Board (GMB), a government parastatal, responsible for buying and selling grain from farmers, and its storage, is facing significant challenges. These include insufficient output from farms, lack of funding and operational problems. Among the operational problems is the issue of old and inefficient silos, which have resulted in further losses of maize stock. It is also alleged that the organisation only assists farmers who support the government, while no help is given to those opposed to the government.
According to the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZimVac), food insecurity mainly affects people in rural areas, particularly in the drier, south western regions of the country. They have very limited alternatives for income sources outside of farming. In the urban areas, food insecurity is more common in the high density areas, due to low income levels and the 85 per cent unemployment rate.
Policies implemented and recommendations
The Zimbabwean government has been criticised for not doing enough to deal with the food shortages that have been recurring in the country. Its unsolicited involvement in donor agency operations has led to sub-optimal food distributions across the country and strained relationships with the donor community. The government has been accused of micro-managing donors and influencing food distributions towards pro-government farmers. Critics say it is leaving certain regions facing acute shortages, particularly Matabeleland in the south-west, one of the most vocal anti-government regions. The Zimbabwean government has negotiated with other nations, like Zambia, to obtain maize relief supplies; but it has incurred new debts in addition to significant existing ones, which the nation is already failing to service. For instance, the $23 million debt to Malawi, for the maize the government purchased in previous years, which it is now struggling to repay (New Zimbabwe, 5 May 2012).
While droughts are a natural phenomenon, Zimbabwe needs to invest in the technologies necessary to improve its circumstances. For instance, it needs to revamp equipment at the Meteorological department and build more water reservoirs. The government also needs to engage in educational programmes for farmers, so that they can improve farming methods. The government should also make an effort to improve diplomatic relations, particularly with previous allies like America, England and Australia, to access more assistance and the knowledge it needs to help alleviate food and water insecurity problems.
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About the author: Kumbirai Kuwuya is a student at Notre Dame University and is completing a Bachelor of Commerce, majoring in accounting and economics. He is originally from Zimbabwe.
Any opinions or views expressed in this paper are those of the individual author, unless stated to be those of Future Directions International.
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