Energy Security SWA Articles
Japan’s Post-Fukushima Energy Projections
- Wednesday, 16 May 2012
Until the Fukushima Daiichi accident, nuclear energy was to play a vital role in Japan’s long-term energy policy. Growing opposition, however, has made this policy untenable. Prefecture governments and civil society groups have pressured the central government to reassess Japan’s energy future. Analysts contend that this concern has become one of the most important national issues facing the current government, even perhaps overshadowing reconstruction efforts and the anaemic growth of the national economy. This reflects the central importance of energy to all facets of Japanese society. In the short-term, fossil fuels will increase in importance, bringing increased concern about emission levels, relations with supplier states and trade imbalances. To resolve these challenges, Japan may look to renewable energy supplies, creating diplomatic opportunities through energy synergies.
Race for Arctic Energy Resources Ramps Up
- Wednesday, 02 May 2012
The eight members of the Arctic Council are in a race to assert their territorial claims in the region. As energy needs grow, ownership of the area’s vast petroleum resources is becoming increasingly contested. In 2007, Russia planted its flag on the Arctic seabed, sparking a series of conferences, culminating in the Ilulissat Declaration. Although aimed at easing territorial tensions, it may well come to be seen as the beginning of an international power struggle.
In mid-April 2012, The United States Geological Society (USGS) released an updated estimate of the Arctic’s natural resources. Eleven per cent of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves lie within the Arctic Ocean and ten per cent of undiscovered gas reserves. Such substantial deposits of valued resources, and their disputed ownership, are likely to cause significant tensions between energy-hungry states.
Energy Developments and Security in the East Mediterranean
- Wednesday, 02 May 2012
Traditionally a transit route, recent energy developments in the eastern Mediterranean suggest the region will increasingly yield greater returns and further energy prospects. Offshore basins adjacent to Cyprus, Egypt, Turkey and Israel, have the potential to significantly alter regional dynamics. Political and security considerations, however, may prevent large-scale development. Most recently, in late-April, this was highlighted by increased tensions in northern Cyprus, between Cyprus and Turkey; a long dormant, although potentially volatile regional flashpoint. Elsewhere, tension between Israel and Lebanon, particularly due to unresolved territorial boundaries, provides additional cause for concern.
Argentina/YPF: Implications of Expropriation
- Thursday, 26 April 2012
In mid-April, in the largest nationalisation since Russia’s acquisition of Yukos in 2003, Argentina’s President, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, seized a majority stake in the oil company Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales (YPF). Sabre rattling and jingoistic rhetoric has increased dramatically in President Kirchner’s second term. The potential remains for further expropriations, particularly affecting the extractive industries. This possibility is placing developments in the emerging shale oil sector in doubt. While President Kirchner may experience short-term political gains from the move, the bill will have significant long-term ramifications for Argentina’s economy, damaging investor confidence and the state’s reputation. As South America booms, Argentina risks becoming a pariah.
United Kingdom Faces Emerging Energy Dilemma
- Wednesday, 18 April 2012
The decision, late in March 2011, by energy utilities RWE and E.ON to abandon plans to develop the United Kingdom’s next generation of nuclear reactors, has created an emerging energy security challenge. London has proposed an expansion of natural gas sourced electricity to alleviate projected shortages. This brings accompanying challenges, however. To mitigate these potential threats British Prime Minster David Cameron should look to continental Europe for guidance and pursue a platform of renewable energy.
Tajik Energy Policy Creates Regional Tension
- Wednesday, 11 April 2012
In recent weeks, tensions have been rising in Eurasia. While the region is endowed with large reserves of water and energy, competition for reserves, and the associated influence, is pushing metropole, Uzbekistan, and regional minnow, Tajikistan, to the brink of conflict. The international community must push the governments of both states to establish a dialogue to forestall political and economic consequences.
An Uncertain Future: The Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline
- Wednesday, 28 March 2012
The long-proposed Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline continues to stall. Although Pakistan is facing an imminent energy crisis, for Islamabad, the project is caught up in the complexities of its relationships with Iran and the United States.
Al Qaida-Inspired Group Threatens Nigerian Energy Sector
- Wednesday, 28 March 2012
The Gulf of Guinea is experiencing an energy boom, as major oil companies seek to capitalise on the region’s large reserves and relative stability, when compared to the Middle East. West Africa is not without security challenges, however. Boko Haram, a group with supposed links to al-Qaida, is challenging the stability of the Nigerian state and, therefore, threatening hydrocarbon development opportunities.
US Lacks “Strategic” Policy in Tapping Strategic Reserves
- Wednesday, 21 March 2012
Washington is lobbying OECD countries to release their strategic oil reserves onto the international market; but caution is required in intervening in the oil market, as a drawdown could increase US exposure to oil shocks.
Indonesia Attempts to Improve Energy Security
- Wednesday, 14 March 2012
Indonesia is an increasingly important member of the “Asian tiger economies”; with a six per cent growth rate in 2011, it has grown to be the largest economy in South-East Asia. In January 2012, that status was further bolstered as credit agencies raised Indonesia’s credit rating to investment grade for the first time since the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis. Significant obstacles remain, however, that may derail economic progress. Recognising this, in early March, Jakarta tasked the National Emergency Council with developing a long-term strategic energy plan. Primarily, the Council must address subsidy issues, dependence on carbon-based fuels and deteriorating downstream infrastructure. Failure to develop a more nuanced policy will have broad social, political and economic implications.