Energy Security
Syrian Revolution: Implications for the Oil Sector
- Wednesday, 01 August 2012
Recent commentary on the Syrian revolution has almost unanimously concluded that the regime of Bashar al-Assad is in terminal decline. It seems to be no longer an issue of if, but when, the Baathist rule will end. Syria’s modest production levels have protected the global oil market from potential ‘shocks’. Yet, Syria cannot be quarantined from the sector in the event of on-going instability, which is a likely outcome of current events. Its proximity as a key transit point, the regional ramifications from the fall of the influential regime and its role in potential domestic and regional instability, will all have significant implications. The primary policy priority of any future Syrian Government will be to simultaneously face these challenges and revive the national oil sector. This will not only promote some semblance of normality and recovery, but will be vital for restoring much needed government revenue.
Afghanistan Releases Hydrocarbon Acreages
- Wednesday, 25 July 2012
In July, the Afghan Mining Ministry announced the release of exploration rights for oil and gas developments in the state’s north-west. Extractive industries could provide Kabul with much needed revenue as it enters the next stage of its post-Taliban reconstruction period. The existence of resources, however, does not automatically translate to productivity. Geopolitical politicking, corruption, governance issues and the security situation may constrain the sector.
More Challenges than Opportunities in Emerging DRC Oil Industry
- Wednesday, 18 July 2012
Africa’s oil industry is growing. Both off-shore and on-shore developments are projected to provide much-needed revenue for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Yet fundamental challenges remain. After years of civil unrest and war, the security situation, both domestically and with its neighbours, remains tense. Violence continues, and more bloody conflict would undoubtedly have negative implications for future hydrocarbon projects. Symptomatic of the DRC’s long history of violence, governance regimes and business infrastructure remain weak and inefficient. This will further complicate investment and could result in negative consequences for the local population and environment.
More Challenges than Opportunities in Emerging DRC Oil Industry (2)
- Wednesday, 18 July 2012
Africa’s oil industry is growing. Both off-shore and on-shore developments are projected to provide much-needed revenue for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Yet fundamental challenges remain. After years of civil unrest and war, the security situation, both domestically and with its neighbours, remains tense. Violence continues, and more bloody conflict would undoubtedly have negative implications for future hydrocarbon projects. Symptomatic of the DRC’s long history of violence, governance regimes and business infrastructure remain weak and inefficient. This will further complicate investment and could result in negative consequences for the local population and environment.
New UAE Pipeline Circumvents Strait of Hormuz
- Wednesday, 04 July 2012
In mid-June, Abu Dhabi opened theHabshan-Fujairah oil pipeline. The pipeline bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and will further erode Iran’s ability to impact the global oil market. It will significantly reduce dependence on the chokepoint of the Strait. Related insurance and transport costs are also likely to fall. The pipeline may also provide additional economic opportunities for non-oil producing regions in the Gulf. Given these considerations, in the future it is highly likely that method of by-passing the Strait will be replicated by other Gulf States.
ChIndia: New Delhi and Beijing Energy Alliance Unlikely to Produce Outcomes
- Wednesday, 27 June 2012
The Chinese and Indian governments, along with energy companies from each state, have agreed, in principle, to collaborate in exploration and potential developments. Although welcomed in many quarters, and with obvious benefits, the co-operation is unlikely to yield palpable results. Convergence of interests, particularly those that pose a challenge to national goals, will provide the best prospects for partnership, although this will probably be ad hoc and short-term in nature.
Russia Fails to Increase Gas Exports to China
- Wednesday, 13 June 2012
In early June, President Putin paid a state visit to Beijing. Discussions were largely based on energy issues, but few tangible outcomes were achieved. An agreement between China and Russia to develop Siberian gas fields remains stalled.
Future of Iraqi Oil Unclear, Despite Positive Developments
- Wednesday, 06 June 2012
Ostensibly, last week’s auction of exploration rights to oil fields, combined with previous announcements of record high production levels, bodes well for Iraq. Yet Baghdad must resolve bureaucratic, security and infrastructure challenges to reach its full oil output potential and maximise its income.
Energy Protest Litmus Test for Government in Burma
- Wednesday, 30 May 2012
Despite its status as an energy exporter, Burma faces severe electricity deficits. This has encouraged segments of the population to take to the streets, taking advantage of the nascent programme of democratic reforms instituted over the last year. It is important, however, that the protestors are realistic in their aims. Fundamentally, the energy crisis is an issue of provision of services and infrastructure; escalation and snowballing of this concern will serve noone’s interests. Mass unrest could potentially lead to a challenge against the reforms and the return of conservative policies. Engagement by all stakeholders to resolve national and political challenges, remains the key to Burma maintaining its current, more open trajectory.
Japan’s Post-Fukushima Energy Projections
- Wednesday, 16 May 2012
Until the Fukushima Daiichi accident, nuclear energy was to play a vital role in Japan’s long-term energy policy. Growing opposition, however, has made this policy untenable. Prefecture governments and civil society groups have pressured the central government to reassess Japan’s energy future. Analysts contend that this concern has become one of the most important national issues facing the current government, even perhaps overshadowing reconstruction efforts and the anaemic growth of the national economy. This reflects the central importance of energy to all facets of Japanese society. In the short-term, fossil fuels will increase in importance, bringing increased concern about emission levels, relations with supplier states and trade imbalances. To resolve these challenges, Japan may look to renewable energy supplies, creating diplomatic opportunities through energy synergies.