Associate Papers
The China-India Border Issue in 2013: Point and Counter-Point
- Tuesday, 28 May 2013
The recent stand-off between Chinese and Indian troops along the undemarcated Line of Actual Control in the East Ladakh region of the Himalayas led to several military flag meetings and much diplomatic effort being expended. It also engendered much debate in China, India and elsewhere. Two scholars, one Chinese the other Indian, present their respective perceptions of the issue here.
Food and Fuel Forever
- Monday, 20 May 2013
- Australia has just 23 days’ supply of fuel in the pipeline: a major oil crisis could cripple our economy within days.
- Algae culture has the potential to make Australia 100 per cent self-sufficient in transport fuels and food.
- It can create major new industries in aquaculture, plastics, textiles, health food, paper, industrial chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
- It can generate an estimated $50 billion in new revenue and create over 50,000 new jobs, mainly in regional Australia.
- Australia’s endowment of sunlight makes it one of the world’s richest oil provinces of the 21st Century.
- Australia needs an accelerated national R&D effort into algae culture and algal biofuels, coupled with a national investment plan to capture this opportunity.
Violence against Minorities Will Defeat the Purpose of Bangladesh War Crimes Trials
- Friday, 17 May 2013
- The issue of war crimes trials was taken up by the Awami League in the run-up to the 2008 elections. The League felt that radical elements had grown stronger because they were not punished in the immediate aftermath of the 1971 Liberation War.
- The war crimes trials have led to unprecedented violence against minority communities.
- If the war crimes trials lead to ethnic cleansing or the persecution of minorities, it will defeat the very purpose of the exercise.
- To prevent that, the Bangladeshi Government must actively work to restore a secular, progressive and pluralistic Bangladesh that could be a model for other Muslim-majority countries.
Bahrain: Genuine Constitutional Monarchy Only Way Out for Al-Khalifa Dynasty
- Monday, 29 April 2013
- The future of the Bahraini ruling family is in jeopardy because of continuing social unrest and a deepening rift within the family. The government’s crackdown has failed to defeat the opposition or to silence their demands for tangible political and economic reform.
- There are signs that the Americans and the Saudis, who have been the Al-Khalifa’s staunchest supporters, are beginning to distance themselves from the regime. Should that continue, it may only be a matter of time before Al-Khalifa rule is swept away.
- King Hamad could avert such a future by transforming his authoritarian monarchy into a constitutional one through concrete steps. These include genuine dialogue with the opposition; replacing the Prime Minister; creating a freely elected parliament with full legislative powers; and opening government employment, especially in the military and security services, to the Shia majority.
The Food, Energy and Water (FEW) Nexus and Gross National Happiness in Bhutan
- Thursday, 13 September 2012
- Bhutan does not suffer chronic food, energy, or water insecurity.
- The export of hydro power constitutes most of Bhutan's revenue.
- Hydropower revenues facilitate the import of food to satisfy growing food demand.
- The Gross National Happiness principles ensure a socially equitable, economically beneficial, and environmentally sustainable approach to the management of food, energy and water issues.
Welcome New Initiatives in Indo-Pakistan Energy Trade
- Monday, 27 August 2012
- The first meeting of the Experts’ Group on Trade in Petroleum and Petrochemical Products between India and Pakistan was held on 17-18 July 2012. The meeting discussed bilateral trade in diesel, furnace oil and natural gas in the wake of a severe electricity shortage in Pakistan, which is keen to begin importing furnace oil as soon as possible.
- The discussion took place against the backdrop of recent initiatives by both countries to improve their bilateral trade. It resulted from a recent energy crisis in Pakistan, which has had an impact on trade levels.
- Exploring and expanding energy trade options would help both countries, by contributing to their economic growth, thereby strengthening their energy security.
- A holistic approach towards enhancing overall bilateral trade relations will go a long way towards resolving their longstanding political issues.
Attack on New Zealand Soldiers Harbinger of Strategic Threat to Future of Afghanistan
- Monday, 13 August 2012
- The two principal strategic threats to enabling the gains made in Afghanistan to stick once US-Coalition forces have withdrawn are the Haqqani Network and the quality of the Afghan National Security Forces.
- The Haqqani Network has turned asymmetric warfare into a business enterprise with safe havens in Pakistan and support from the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI). It has strong links with al-Qaida and other regional terrorist networks, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).
- Recent handovers of US Combat Outposts to Afghan National Army units have demonstrated their lack of logistical and supply capabilities, allowing the insurgents to move back into previously cleared areas.
- The US and Coalition countries may want to reconsider which troops they withdraw and leave the Operations Mentoring and Liaison Teams, who train the Afghan National Security Forces, to remain much longer than the 2014 deadline.
- The Afghan population in the villages and valleys away from the main centres will be faced with the stark choice of siding with a potentially weak Afghan Government or Taliban and Haqqani commanders who live among the people.
Burma and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Claims, Controversies and Consequences
- Thursday, 09 August 2012
- For more than 30 years, Burma has been accused of secretly purchasing, producing and using weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
- Until 2000, these claims related only to chemical and biological weapons but, since then, attention has been focussed on Burma’s reported acquisition of nuclear and ballistic missile technology, mainly from North Korea.
- Despite a number of suspicious developments, little hard evidence of Burmese WMD manufacture or use has been produced. Over the past year, however, reports of a ballistic missile production programme have become more authoritative.
- President Thein Sein’s promise to the US Secretary of State in December 2011 to sever all Burma’s military contacts with North Korea raised hopes that WMD development in Burma would cease. As yet, neither has happened.
- No government wants to see Burma once again become an international pariah, but its continuing defence ties with North Korea and apparent pursuit of a ballistic missile capability threaten both its diplomatic rehabilitation and domestic reform programme.
- The international community seems prepared to cut Burma considerable slack on these issues, doubtless in an effort to maintain the momentum of the current reforms, but there are limits to its tolerance. A return to tougher policies against Burma cannot be ruled out.
India’s Strategic Perceptions: Dilemmas and Opportunities
- Thursday, 12 July 2012
- India’s strategic orientation in the evolving power dynamic in South and East Asia will be increasingly directed towards building credible deterrence against, rather than attempting to contain, a rising China.
- The use of soft power while keeping open the options of hard power and strategic alliance will also be favoured.
- India is establishing a strong but cautious strategic partnership with the United States and, while it is wary of entering into a deeper strategic alliance at this stage, it nevertheless aspires to a close relationship with the superpower.
- The new generation of leadership in China will be decisive in delineating the nature of Sino-Indian relations in the future.
Understanding China’s North-East and South Asia Policies
- Thursday, 21 June 2012
- The capacity of the United States to credibly guarantee a stable international system in Asia may, in the future, become increasingly moot.
- In this context, aggressive posturing by China in territorial disputes is causing widespread concern in the Asia-Pacific region. Understanding China’s foreign policy is, therefore, imperative.
- While regional political and military-technological constraints compel China to tread with caution, access to overseas force-multipliers encourages an assertive foreign policy.
- Though regional political constraints will continue to restrict China’s actions in the long run, its economic and military-technological constraints will ease in the medium to long run. Newer constraints will very likely come to bear, however, as overseas strategic investments wither and helpful regimes that serve as force-multipliers may weaken or turn hostile.
- In the foreseeable future, China would be unable to sustain aggression abroad over extended periods, but this does not mean that it will not be involved in aggressions at all.
- There are limits to how far China’s neighbours can mitigate conflicts through diplomatic engagement; but nimble defences should be sufficient to deal with occasional Chinese aggressions.