Associate Papers
The Politics of Centre-State Relations and the Formulation of India’s Foreign Policy
Since India attained independence from Britain, the politics of centre-state relations has remained a powerful force in shaping India’s foreign policy. Furthermore, India’s rapid economic growth has given a new found influence to regional parties, which has led to an increasing assertiveness of regional parties in India’s political life. In turn, this has led to regional parties having disproportionate influence over the formulation of foreign policy particularly with regard to India’s immediate neighbours.
The Politics of Sri Lanka-Tamil Nadu Relations
With the ongoing coverage that Sri Lanka receives in the Western media today, very little is given to the divisions among Tamils themselves and the complex inter-relationship between Sri Lanka, and its immediate neighbour, the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Indeed, the turbulence that often characterises Sri Lanka’s relations with India more often than not stems from ongoing tensions between Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. It is this complex triangular dynamic that will remain the next major hurdle in stabilising Sri Lanka-India relations, one that India appears to be paying greater attention towards.
China’s Rise: South Pacific Perspectives – New Zealand and Australian Security Perceptions of China
- New Zealand and Australia have a common interest in a peaceful relationship between the United States and a rising China, but their relationships with each are not identical.
- Perceptions of harder Australian and softer New Zealand views of China are not necessarily correct.
- New Zealand, like Australia, seeks a continued strong US presence in the Asia-Pacific region.
- The gap between New Zealand and Australian defence capabilities will colour the way in which both countries may seek to respond to a rising China in military terms.
India’s Role in the Indian Ocean and East Asian Regions
- India should enhance its diplomatic presence and soft power in the region.
- The Indian Navy should increase its activities in the region by conducting more frequent port calls and joint naval exercises.
- Closer co-operation with Australia and India would enable Indonesia to enhance its naval capability in the shortest time possible and improve its ability to secure freedom of navigation through the Indonesian “chokepoints”.
South Asia: A Cold War “Quadrilateral” Redux?
- The emerging “quadrilateral” arrangement in South Asia involving China and Pakistan on the one hand, and the United States and India on the other, is unlikely to give rise to the kind of “locked in” pattern that pertained during significant periods of the Cold War. All parties will want more manoeuvrability and flexibility in relations than was possible under the rigidities of the Cold War.
- Pakistan will be constrained in unreservedly backing the Afghan Taliban, lest that alienate a China concerned about Islamic revolt in its west.
- China will want to see a stable, moderate Af-Pak region, one conducive to its own wider strategic purposes vis-à-vis energy, India, the US and the Indian Ocean.
- The US will want a negotiated arrangement that will allow it to remove the major portion of its forces from Afghanistan with dignity, while preserving the basic stability of the region.
- Although not happy with what it would see as a premature withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2012, India will not be able to "go it alone" in Afghanistan.
The Future of China-Pakistan Relations after Osama bin Laden
Despite its high profile, the killing of Osama bin Laden is unlikely to dramatically alter China-Pakistan relations, because:
- China continues to be concerned at the possible spread of Islamist extremism into Xinjiang province from Pakistan.
- After the US drawdown, significant Chinese investments in Afghanistan may be increasingly threatened by Pakistani instability.
- The value of China’s bilateral trade with India far outstrips that with Pakistan.
- It may come to be in China’s interests to co-operate, at least to some degree, with the United States in stabilising Pakistan.
India’s Rise as a Great Power, Part Two: The Pakistan-China-India Dynamic
- Pakistan is unstable and is accused by India of supporting regional terrorism.
- Nuclear exchange and accidents remain a key threat, with global implications.
- India perceives China to be strategically encircling it with South Asian allies, including Pakistan.
- India’s military expansion will not change the fundamental regional power balance.
In considering India’s rise as a great power, this paper focuses specifically on India’s relations with its strategically significant neighbours, Pakistan and China. Though India’s increasing projection of influence may change the regional dynamics, the fundamental balance of power among India and its neighbours will not change dramatically in the near future. Pakistan is already overwhelmed by the military strength of India, thus its strategic outlook will remain unchanged, while China and India have increasingly intertwined relations and evenly-matched conventional and nuclear forces, ensuring relative regional stability.
India’s Rise as a Great Power, Part One: Regional and Global Implications
- India’s traditional strategy of non-alignment has shifted towards “poly-alignment”.
- As a new regional power, India is increasing its naval, air force and missile capabilities.
- During this period of rapid development, domestic stability is a key challenge for India.
- The US supports Indian expansion, with the aim of balancing Chinese influence in Asia.
In the decades to come, India will continue its rise to great power status aided by the United States, which sees it as helping to keep the global strategic balance in Washington’s favour. Following a strategy of “poly-alignment”, India will subsequently look to project greater power beyond its borders. This will particularly be the case in the Indian Ocean region, viewed by New Delhi as being essential to India’s economic and social stability.
Associate Paper: Co-operation in the Indian Ocean Region: Towards the Co-existence of IOMAC and IOR-ARC
This paper, by FDI Associate Dr Y. J. Sithara N. Fernando, examines the potential for co-operation between the Indian Ocean Marine Affairs Co-operation (IOMAC) organisation and the Indian Ocean Rim-Association for Regional Co-operation (IOR-ARC). Dr Fernando argues that the two organisations should build on their complementarities, with the resulting synergy leading to greater international co-operation in the Indian Ocean region.
Associate Paper: Afghanistan - Shooting and Chewing Gum at the Same Time
In Seven Pillars of Wisdom, T.E. Lawrence wrote ‘… the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they act their dreams with open eyes to make it possible.’ While Lawrence’s extraordinary World War One mission was in Arabia fighting the Turks, his comment epitomises the mindset one is confronted with in Afghanistan when negotiating with the Taliban. The key question is how to look them in the eye and negotiate while fighting at the same time. It has, however, been done before in conflicts such as the Korean War, Northern Ireland and Vietnam.