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Strategic Weekly Analysis

Vol. 3, №44

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  • Support for Agriculture Deferred: Doha Talks Yield Little Action
  • Mozambique Growth Continues, Trade with China Exceeds US$1 Billion
  • Climate Change:  Mixed Results
  • Construction Begins on South Stream Pipeline
  • India: Corruption Affecting Investment and Economic Growth
  • British Drones may be used against Somali Pirates

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Obama’s Burma Visit Marks a Turning Point

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  • The restoration of Burma-US relations has generated optimism about Burma’s future and gives hope for democratisation and national reconciliation.
  • Lingering ethnic problems, such as the Rohingya and Kachin crises, continue to cause concern.
  • Burma agreeing to sign the Additional Protocol to the IAEA’s Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement is a positive signal to those concerned about its nuclear trajectory and its links with North Korea.
  • The US “pivot” to Asia is not a containment design, but an attempt to re-invigorate US strategic and economic interests in the region.

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Strategic Weekly Analysis

Vol. 3, №43

  • South Africa: Zuma Safe, Attention now on the Role of Deputy President
  • Djibouti’s Food Insecurity Drives Internal Migration
  • Northern Sea Route: Energy Highway?
  • Pakistan Successfully Tests Hatf-VMissile 
  • Pakistan Claims US Ties Repaired as Afghanistan Troop Withdrawal Looms

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United Kingdom: National Involvement in the Indian Ocean Region

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  • Conscious of the current straitened economic circumstances, the UK is pursuing “commercial diplomacy” by seeking new markets in burgeoning Indian Ocean region economies.
  • Within the Indian Ocean region, the UK’s diplomatic resources have been strategically pivoted towards the emerging economic “powerhouses”.
  • The Indian Ocean continues to be vital to British strategic maritime interests. The UK maintains a naval presence within the Indian Ocean region and plays a leading role in counter-piracy and maritime security efforts.
  • The United Kingdom is committed to promoting its values abroad and uses its former colonial links to help forge and strengthen relationships.

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Evolving Indo-Australian Strategic Co-operation in the Twenty-First Century

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  • As the world’s focus shifts towards the Indo-Pacific, relations between two of the largest democracies in the region, India and Australia, will assume greater significance. The growing convergence of geopolitical interests was underlined by Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s visit to India.
  • Australia needs to continue “Looking West” into the Indian Ocean Region, towards Indonesia and India.
  • Military co-operation between India and Australia could include co-operation in intelligence gathering and participation in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations.

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The Threat of Organised Crime to the Oil Industry

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  • Lucrative opportunities and the pervasive culture of organised crime have resulted in a multi-billion dollar criminal oil enterprise.
  • In a vicious cycle, politically weak petro-states create an environment for illicit and unrecorded oil trading. Simultaneously, criminalisation of the energy sector leads to increased fragility in the state infrastructure.
  • In the future, criminal influence and entrepreneurialism, coupled with extent of state resilience, will feature as key determinants of the influence of criminal oil enterprises.

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Strategic Weekly Analysis

Vol. 3, №42

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  • Obama’s Visit to Burma: Not Just About China
  • Burundi’s Returning Refugees: The Benefits and Detriments to Food Insecurity
  • South Africa: Democratic Alliance Promotes New Blood, Sets Sights on Economic Hub
  • Weapons and Politics as Iran Attempts to Expand Sphere of Influence
  • Peru Oil Expansion Faces Challenges 
  • Pakistan Divided as Violence, Unrest Continues Amid Religious Holiday

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The Future of Food and Water Security in New Egypt

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  • Fifteen million Egyptians do not earn a sufficient income to purchase an adequate level of nutrition. Income constraints limit the consumption choices of those most vulnerable to food insecurity.
  • Economic, political and environmental challenges place restrictions on domestic food production. Increasing food imports, together with reclaiming land for greater food production, is imperative for ensuring the food security of Egypt’s rapidly growing population.
  • Egypt experiences an annual water shortfall of 7 billion cubic metres. Its traditional control over the Nile river, the predominate source of fresh water, is being increasingly challenged by neighbouring countries.
  • As Egypt undergoes its democratic transition, it faces a moderate to high risk of developing food and water crises over the next decade.

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Strategic Weekly Analysis

Vol. 3, №41

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  • AUSMIN: Highlights Opportunities, Neglects Challenges and Outcomes  
  • New Delhi-Islamabad-Kabul: Can They Make Borders Irrelevant?
  • Unrest Continues in Bahrain as Conditions Worsen
  • Flooding in Kenya Causes Lost Harvests
  • Kenya: Election Violence Approaching?

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Turkey: National Involvement in the Indian Ocean Region

 

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  • Turkey’s geopolitical region can be a limiting factor in its economic growth. Between an unstable Middle East and an economically fragile Europe, Turkey must look beyond its immediate neighbourhood to maintain its rate of growth.
  • Capitalising successfully on the opportunities offered by rising economies in the Indo-Pacific region may facilitate Turkey’s own future economic growth and domestic stability. Turkey’s Indo-Pacific strategy, therefore, is to extend its influence and trading opportunities.
  • This flurry of activity can benefit Australia. With an expansion of the Turkish economy and trade, Australia can use historical and cultural links to bolster its trading partnership.

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