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An Iranian Nuclear Resolution: Fraught with Difficulty

The Baghdad talks finished at best on a hopeful note. While details are scarce, and there is no evidence of a substantial breakthrough, further discussions are contemplated.

Both sides need an agreement. But do they have the capacity to achieve this given their inherent suspicions, different objectives and failure to reach any significant outcome over many years that satisfied both sides?

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Food and Water Insecurity: International Conflict Triggers & Potential Conflict Points

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Key Points

  • Diminishing food, water, energy and land resources, relative to demand, are likely to lead to increasing conflicts.
  • Conflict is most likely to be intra-state and not inter-state.
  • Existing conflicts will be aggravated by food and water shortages.
  • Conflict will take the form of riots, civil unrest, democratic and autocratic breakdown, or “cold” wars
  • Regions to watch are those with weak government and economic institutions, inequality and corruption.

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Strategic Weekly Analysis

Vol. 3, №19.

  • Food Security Hits G8 Agenda
  • GCC: Greater Unity Unlikely
  • Iran: The Continuation of a Long Process
  • Pakistan: Fallout over NATO supply route escalates
  • Vanuatu Row Highlights Flaws in Regional Policy 

 

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Trends in Afghan-Australia Relations

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  • Afghanistan’s importance to Australia’s security is essentially the same as it is for all other western countries that are threatened by violent transnational extremism.
  • Although major inroads have been made there are concerns that the reduced Australian military presence in Uruzgan Province could undermine the achievements that have been made over the past decade.
  • Even after Australian forces withdraw, Australian assistance is particularly sought after in developing Afghanistan’s nascent resources sector and in building educational institutions that can train large numbers of Afghan professionals.

 

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The End Game in Afghanistan: Pakistan’s Critical Role

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  • Pakistan has an important and critical role to play in the lead up to 2014, when the Coalition forces leave Afghanistan.
  • Pakistan must be included at the negotiating table to provide the opportunity for any peace and stability.
  • Pakistan wants to see a ‘friendly’ Afghanistan post-2014.
  • The inclusion of the Taliban in a future Afghan government may not be in Pakistan’s long-term interests. 

 

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Cost and Security of Electricity Generated by High Altitude Winds

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  • In Australia and elsewhere, the winds at altitude are about eighty times more powerful and three times more persistent than the winds available to ground-based wind turbines.
  • Harvesting this energy aloft gives the lowest cost of electricity in Australia and it addresses people's concerns about the ever-increasing price of electricity. The power availability can be considered as 'base-load' due to the persistence of these winds. 
  • Electricity generation by this method needs to be advanced through the construction and demonstration of an automated, tethered, generating rotorcraft. The relevant research and development has been completed, and commercialisation awaits.
  • A derivative form of rotorcraft can be used for surveillance duties, both for military and civilian use.

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Strategic Weekly Analysis

Vol. 3, № 18.

  • Food Insecurity in Nepal’s Mountain Regions
  • Pakistan Projects Bumper 2012 Harvest, Concerns Remain on Regional Food Insecurity
  • Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the Gaza Strip
  • Pakistan-US Relations: cross-border cooperation resumes
  • Japan’s Post-Fukushima Energy Projections
  • Federal Budget 2012: Implications for Northern Australia

 

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As Sanctions Intensify, Iran Seeks Partnerships in South-East Asia

 

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  • Despite continued US hostility, over the last few years Iran has developed strong economic ties with several South-East Asian countries.
  • The imposition of tough US and EU sanctions is having a serious impact on Iran’s economy, but Iran is trying to circumvent the sanctions by either trading in foreign currencies or resorting to a system of barter.
  • Although there are indications that Iran is willing to engage in negotiations over its nuclear programme, the impact of the sanctions has forced it to consider further strengthening relations with countries outside the sphere of influence of the US and EU.

 

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Strategic Weekly Analysis

Vol. 3, №17.

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  • Iran: The Continuing Decline of Ahmadinejad’s Power and Influence
  • Iran Risks Alienating Key Regional Ally in Latin America
  • Pakistan’s 21st Century Naval Modernisation Programme
  • President Expands US Drone Campaign in Yemen to Combat al-Qaeda Rise
  • Inaugural Global Food Report Warns of Rising Food Prices and Volatility
  • Findings of Defence Force Posture Review Announced

 

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Potent and Capable: India’s Transformational 21st Century Navy

 

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Motivated by a desire to safeguard its critical sea lanes, counter China and also project its project its influence internationally, the Indian Navy has embarked on a historically unprecedented quest to develop sophisticated blue-water naval capabilities. In doing so, India’s strategic decision-makers are hopeful the Navy’s multi-billion dollar modernisation and expansion programme will ultimately cast India onto the world stage as a true great-power.

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